Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

The last few head-to-head meetings between these two teams have been largely evenly matched, with the last eight encounters producing two wins for each side and four draws. However, Real Madrid are in better form on the whole than their city counterparts, who are coming off a poor defeat.

In Champions League matches, Madrid have never lost to Atletico, and while we expect this one to be a tight game, we think that theme will continue here. Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid.

One of the more finely poised ties in the Champions League last 16 is the Madrid derby, where Atletico Madrid are hoping to dump out fierce rivals and holders, Real Madrid.

• Date: 12/03/2025
• Kick-off time: 20:00
• Location: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid

Atletico Madrid were beaten 2-1 in the first leg at the Bernabeu last week. Diego Simeone's men were firmly outclassed in the first 20 minutes or so and fell behind to fine goal by forward Rodrygo. However, they slowly grew into the game and equalised via a Julian Alvarez screamer and from there, they were largely the better side.

However, despite dominating the opening ten minutes of the second half, they fell behind once again to an excellent solo goal by Brahim Diaz. Ultimately, it could've been much worse for Atletico, but it was a reminder that against this Real Madrid team, they don't have to outplay you to beat you. They have so many game-breakers all over the pitch, and that makes it exceptionally difficult to outscore them, especially in tight, high-pressure games.

However, Atletico can take comfort from the fact that they're almost always exceptionally competitive when they play Real Madrid, and crucially, they're playing the second leg in front of their own fans. They'll need the crowd at the Metropolitano to be in full song on Wednesday night, and if they are, they might just do it.

Real Madrid are looking to claim a record 16th Champions League trophy and a third crown in the last four years. Carlo Ancelotti's side are the favourites for the trophy and when you look at the talent in the squad, it's hard to argue.

Madrid will no doubt be pleased with the fact they have a first leg lead coming into this game but they'll be well aware that their lead is a slender one. They know that if they avoid defeat, they're through, so that will be a source of confidence, but equally, their last three trips to the Metropolitano have seen them lose twice and draw once, with both of the losses coming by a two-goal margin.

They will, then, have their work cut out, and they'll need their star-studded lineup to be on top form. The team will be buoyed by the return of Jude Bellingham, who missed the first leg through injury. Bellingham is the glue that knits this side together and when he's not there, his absence is sorely felt.

In the last 14 seasons, there have been only two occasions - 2018/19 and 2019/20 - where Real Madrid have failed to reach the semi-finals of the Champions League. That is a genuinely astounding degree of consistency that no other club on the continent can come close to matching. They have a few tough tests in store in the coming weeks if they want to keep that record going this season, but it's extremely difficult to bet against them in any tie in this competition

This game will be televised live in the UK on TNT Sports 3.

Atletico Madrid Team News:

Midfielder Koke is set to be the home side's only injury absentee for this one.

Diego Simeone will likely make a change or two for this one, with Robin Le Norman and Nahuel Molina vying for a place in the starting lineup.

Predicted lineup: Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann.

Real Madrid Team News:

Los Blancos are set to be without Dani Ceballos, Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao, but otherwise they have a fairly clean bill of health for this game.

Jude Bellingham will return to the starting XI, likely replacing Brahim Diaz, in what should be the only change to the starting XI.

Predicted lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Rodrygo, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Bellingham; Vini Jr, Mbappe.

Atletico Madrid:

Atletico come into this game with two wins, one draw and two losses from their last five games. At the weekend, Atletico fell to a shock 2-1 loss to Getafe, a result that followed last weeks loss to Real Madrid.

Before that, Atletico beat Athletic Bilbao 2-1 thanks to Julian Alvarez, a result that was preceded by a 4-4 draw with Barcelona - where Alvarez, Griezmann, Llorente and Sorloth scored the goals - and a 3-0 win over Valencia, courtesy of an Alvarez brace and a goal from Correa.

Real Madrid:

Real Madrid's form is very good, with Carlo Ancelotti's men having won four and lost one of their last five games. Most recently, Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 thanks to goals from Mbappe and Vinicus Junior, which was preceded by last week's win over Atletico.

Prior to that, Madrid were beaten 2-1 by Real Betis, a result that followed a 1-0 win over Real Sociedad, thanks to a goal by Endrick, and a 2-0 win over Girona, courtesy of Modric and Vinicius Junior.

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