Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

This one is likely to be a close encounter. The last five head-to-head meetings have seen three draws and one win for each team, with all of the last three games finishing 1-1.

Madrid have won four and drawn one of their last five games on home soil, while Atlético have won only two of their last five on the road. Madrid's draw, however, came against Atlético.

Bellingham's absence could prove an issue for the home side, but with this being a Champions League encounter, it's impossible not to back the home side. Real Madrid 2-1 Atlético Madrid.

Real Madrid's defence of their Champions League crown resumes this week as they take on city rivals Atlético in the last 16.

• Date: 04/03/2025
• Kick-off time: 20:00
• Location: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Real Madrid are, once again, the favourites to win the Champions League. Los Blancos have utterly dominated this competition for the last decade, winning six of the last eleven trophies and two of the last three. The 15-time winners are looking to add another crown to their trophy cabinet and looking at the landscape across Europe, it's fair to say they've got a very good chance.

Domestically, Madrid have been good, although somewhat inconsistent, where they're 3rd in La Liga, three points shy of rivals Barcelona at the top of the league. Even if they've not been at their best every weekend in La Liga, we know their best performances tend to come in this competition and when they do hit their top level, they're extremely tough to stop.

After a fairly difficult start to life in Madrid, Kylian Mbappé looks to have fully settled in the Spanish capital and he comes into this game with 27 goals in all competitions this season. After netting a hat-trick against Manchester City in the last round, he'll be determined to put his fingerprints all over this game as the Frenchman continues to chase that elusive Ballon d'Or he so desperately wants.

It could be argued that this is one of the tougher ties that Madrid could have faced in this competition. Atlético know them inside and out and the head-to-head meetings between these two tend to be extremely close, so while Los Blancos remain the favourites, their city rivals could give them an almighty scare.

Atlético Madrid, currently 2nd in La Liga, will be well up for this tie. Under Diego Simeone, Atlético are bang in form and will be very confident about the prospect of finally beating their fierce rivals in this competition.

Champions League games against Real Madrid are accompanied by traumatic memories on the red side of Madrid, with Simeone's side having lost two Champions League finals and two knockout round ties at the hands of Los Blancos in the last decade or so, most of which ended in excruciatingly painful fashion.

Despite the fact that Atlético somewhat frequently get the better of Madrid in domestic ties, they've struggled to replicate that in games in Europe, which really helps play into the psychology behind Madrid being a far taller hurdle to clear in Champions League matches. Atlético will have to hope that past failures don't act as a mental block to progression from this tie because despite being the underdogs, they have a very real chance here.

Striker Julián Álvarez has fared well since arriving from Manchester City, scoring 21 times in all competitions this season, while Antoine Griezmann remains impactful, registering 16 goals and 7 assists so far. There is no lack of talent in this Atlético side, but there is also no denying that they're at a disadvantage in that regard here, so Diego Simeone is going to have to find a way to bridge the talent gap if they're to progress from this tie.

Regardless of the result, this has all of the makings of a classic Champions League tie, despite being a contest between two sides from the same division. Atlético will be pleased they have the second leg at their place, so let's see if they can get a favourable result here.

This game will be televised live to all subscribed viewers on TNT Sports 1.

Real Madrid Team News:

After picking up a booking against Manchester City last time out, Jude Bellingham will be unavailable for the first leg of this tie through suspension.

On top of that, Eder Militão, Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos and Jesus Vallejo are all out injured.

Predicted lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Rüdiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Díaz, Vinícius; Mbappé.

Atlético Madrid Team News:

Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke are the visitors' two absentees, with the pair struggling with minor injuries.

Diego Simeone could make a change or two for this one, with Marcos Llorente possibly coming in for Giuliano Simeone on the right.

Predicted lineup: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Giménez, Galán; Llorente, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Álvarez.

Real Madrid:

Real Madrid are in decent form, as they come into this one with three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five games. At the weekend, Madrid fell to a shock 2-1 defeat away at Real Betis after going 1-0 up through Brahim Díaz.

Before that, a first half goal from Endrick gave them a 1-0 win away at Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey, a result that followed a 2-0 win over Girona - thanks to Luka Modrić and Vinícius Júnior - and a 3-1 win over Manchester City, where Kylian Mbappé bagged all three goals.

Those results followed a 1-1 draw with Osasuna, where Mbappé grabbed the goal.

Atlético Madrid:

Atlético Madrid are also in fairly decent form having won two and drawn three of their last five games. Most recently, Atlético won a hard-fought three points against Athletic Bilbao thanks to a goal from Julián Álvarez.

Prior to that, Atlético drew 4-4 away at Barcelona in the Cope del Rey - with Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann, Marcos Llorente and Alexander Sørloth scoring goals - which was preceded by a 3-0 win away at Valencia courtesy of an Álvarez brace and a goal from Ángel Correa.

Those results were preceded by a 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo, where Sørloth scored the goal, and a 1-1 draw with Real Madrid, with Álvarez netting from the spot.

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