Burnley vs. Oxford: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

Burnley have, remarkably, drawn four of their last five games on home soil 0-0, but they're facing a side with only one win away from home all season.

The Clarets have kept eight clean sheets on the bounce, so it's fair to expect that record to continue here, in a game they should take three points from. Burnley 2-0 Oxford.

Burnley are looking to get back on track in the Championship promotion race as they take on Oxford United.

• Date: 04/02/2025
• Kick-off time: 19:45
• Location: Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley currently sit 3rd in the Championship with 58 points from 30 games. On the whole, it’s been a successful season for the Clarets, but it hasn’t been a campaign without issues. Life under Scott Parker is divisive; while Burnley’s position in the league table is good, they’re arguably the most boring team in the entire division. Burnley have conceded just nine goals in 30 games this season, a jaw-dropping figure, and are on course to be one of the best defensive teams this league has ever seen. But with that, they’ve scored only 36 goals and have slumped to a whopping ten 0-0 draws. When watching Burnley, it’s clear that they’re a team that’s smaller than the sum of its parts in an attacking sense, but their watertight defensive record might just get them up regardless.

The Clarets’ top scorer is midfielder Josh Brownhill, who has nine goals in the league. Burnley’s expected goals against rate is the second-best in the league at a rate of 1.03xGA per game, while their expected goals rate is 1.32xG, the 11th-best in the league.

Burnley have lost only twice this season, fewer than any other side in the league, but having drawn 13 times, the second most in the league, they risk letting their exceptional defensive resolve get the better of them in the promotion race. They need to bounce back here after a 0-0 draw last time out, and they’re heavily favoured to do that.

Oxford United are currently 16th in the Championship with 37 points from 30 games. Overall, the U’s are enjoying an impressive campaign in the Championship following promotion from League One last season. The campaign hasn’t entirely been smooth sailing, with Oxford parting ways with manager Des Buckingham back around Christmas time over fears of declining form, and since Gary Rowett has taken charge as his replacement, the U’s have been surging. Oxford are now a solid ten points clear of the relegation zone, and with 16 games left to play, it feels highly likely that they’ll secure Championship football for another season.

Oxford have largely struggled in an attacking sense this season, scoring just 34 goals in their 30 games. Striker Mark Harris and defender Greg Leigh are the U’s top scorers with five goals each, underlying the issues they’ve had offensively. Their defensive record has seen them concede 44 goals in 30 games, which also stands as one of the worst records in the league.

Oxford, though, have lost only one game since Rowett took charge, and that was his opening game against the league leaders, Leeds United. As they come into this game unbeaten in nine matches, the U’s might quietly fancy their chances of stealing a result.

This game will be televised live to all subscribed UK viewers on the Sky Sports Red Button.

Burnley Team News:

The home side will be without Aaron Ramsey, Enock Agyei and Jordan Beyer, all of whom remain out injured.

Josh Brownhill and Luca Koleosho are both doubts too, after missing the trip to Portsmouth with knocks.

Predicted lineup: Trafford; Roberts, Egan-Riley, Esteve, Pires; Anthony, Cullen, Laurent, Foster; Flemming, Barnes.

Oxford Team News:

The Us are likely once again going to be missing Elliott Moore and Ben Nelson, who are both unavailable through injury.

Oxford have had a fairly settled starting XI under Rowett, so it's likely they'll stick with a similar XI to the one that started against Bristol City at the weekend.

Predicted lineup: Cumming; Kioso, Helik, Brown, Leigh; Vaulks, Brannagan; Płacheta, Rodrigues, Dembélé; Harris.

Burnley:

Burnley enter this game with two wins and three draws from their last five games. At the weekend, the Clarets slumped to a 0-0 draw away at Portsmouth, a game that followed a 0-0 draw against Leeds United, where they failed to record a single shot on target.

Before that, braces from Zian Flemming and Josh Laurent on top of a goal from Josh Cullen secured a 5-0 win away at Plymouth Argyle, which came after a 0-0 draw against Sunderland and a 3-1 win away at Reading, courtesy of goals against Lyle Foster and Zian Flemming.

Oxford:

Oxford, just like Burnley, come into this game with two wins and four draws from their last five games. Last time out, Oxford were held to a 1-1 draw against Bristol City, a result that they'll be disappointed with having taken a 1-0 lead (through Greg Leigh) against a ten-man Bristol City team, only to concede six minutes later.

Prior to that, Oxford drew 0-0 with Stoke City, which was preceded by a 3-2 win over Luton Town - thanks to goals from Michał Helik, Ciaron Brown and Greg Leigh - and a 1-0 win over Blackburn Rovers via a Cameron Brannagan free-kick.

Preceding those results was a 1-1 draw away at Plymouth Argyle, with Will Vaulks scoring the goal.

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