Aston Villa’s Europa League lock horns with Red Bull Salzburg on Thursday in a game between one of the competition’s form sides and an away team whose league‑phase numbers fall away sharply once they leave home.
- Date: 29/01/2026
- Kick-off: 8:00pm
- Location: Villa Park, Birmingham
Villa’s dominant record at Villa Park and Salzburg’s stark away struggles in this tournament set up a match where the hosts are strong favourites, but Salzburg’s domestic goal trends still give some scope for a competitive scoreboard rather than a training exercise. Villa are already well‑placed near the top of the Europa League league‑phase standings and Salzburg need a result to retain realistic hopes of progressing. Unai Emery’s side responded to a 1-0 home defeat to Everton by winning 1-0 away at Fenerbahce and 2-0 at Newcastle, reinforcing the sense that the Everton loss was an anomaly in an otherwise excellent run that had included 11 straight home wins before that setback. In the league phase overall, Villa have taken 15 points from 18 (5 wins, 1 defeat) with a +6 goal difference, scoring 10 and conceding 4.
At Villa Park, their European numbers are particularly strong. Villa have beaten Bologna 1-0, Maccabi Tel‑Aviv 2–0 and Young Boys 2-1 at home in this league phase, creating chances worth 5.7 xG and allowing opponents just 2.7 xGA across those three matches. That output matches their actual goals of five scored and one conceded at Villa Park in the group. Across all competitions, they had won 11 consecutive home games before the Everton defeat.
Salzburg arrive with almost the reverse profile. Through six league‑phase matches they have taken just three points (1 win, 5 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their home games have been more competitive: 5.0 xG for and 5.3 xGA across three fixtures, with four of their five goals coming in Salzburg, but once they travel, the data becomes brutal. They've suffered away defeats of 0-2 at Lyon, 1-4 at Bologna and 0-1 at Freiburg, leaving them with three away games, no points, and a cumulative 3.2 xG for against a massive 9.6 xGA.
Despite their domestic dominance, Salzburg appear unable to translate their quality to football at this level, so to say they're facing an uphill battle on Thursday night would be a major understatement. Unai Emery's men are strong favourites, and it would be a big shock if they failed to live up to that tag.
Aston Villa 2-0 RB Salzburg
