Two sides in search of three points lock horns in West London this week as Chelsea take on Leeds United in the Premier League.
- Date: 10/02/2026
- Kick-off: 7:30pm
- Location: Stamford Bridge, West London
Chelsea come into the game as favourites, as their Premier League xG for stands at 1.59 per match (1.70 at home) and xG against at 1.30 (1.25 at Stamford Bridge), pointing to a team that consistently creates more than it concedes and generally keeps shot quality against at manageable levels. In over‑2.5 terms they are firmly towards the high‑event end of the league, averaging just over 2 goals scored and around 1.3 conceded per game, with many of their fixtures clearing the 2.5 line.
BTTS has also been a strong feature of their season. Across the opening 21 league matches, Chelsea have recorded both teams scoring in 62% of games, one of the higher marks in the division, indicating that even when their defence performs well overall, they rarely go long stretches without conceding.
Form at Stamford Bridge strengthens the picture of a home side likely to carry the initiative. Over their last ten home games, Chelsea have averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, kept clean sheets in 50% of those fixtures and found the net in every one. In the same sample they have scored at least twice in 70% of matches and registered a goal in both halves in half of them, evidence of sustained attacking output rather than one‑off bursts. With an xG for of 1.70 at home and a match‑shot profile where 75% of their home games pass 23.5 total shots, they look well set to create a steady stream of chances against a Leeds side that concedes more than the league average.
Leeds travel south with a very different statistical landscape. Their Premier League xG for the season stands at 1.39 per match (1.51 at home, 1.25 away) and xG against at 1.42 (1.53 away), highlighting a team that creates reasonably but allows opponents slightly better chances on average. In raw goals terms, they have one of the weaker defensive records in the division, conceding 1.72 goals per game overall, and their away form has been particularly grim, with only two wins on the road in all competitions this season.
Still, Leeds are not without attacking bite. They have scored at least once in seven of their last eight games on the road, and have seven goals in their last three away games in all competitions. They've had some solid results on the road, such as a 0-0 draw at Anfield and 1-1 draws and Sunderland and Brentford. Ultimately, though, a Chelsea side in good form will likely be a sep too far.
Chelsea 2-1 Leeds
