Valencia vs Girona: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Valencia host Girona at the weekend with potential European qualification still up for grabs in La Liga with the season approaching the final couple of weeks.

Date: 19/05/2024

Location: Mestalla

Kick-Off: 6:00 PM

Valencia’s European hopes are hanging by a thread as they would need a unique set of results to qualify for the UEFA Europa Conference League. The home side are currently ninth after 35 games, only a goal behind their biggest rivals Villarreal. The hosts are seven points adrift of Real Sociedad who occupy that final European place.

It’s worth noting that if Real Sociedad win their respective game in hand against Barcelona, the chances of European football disappear for the home side. Valencia has 48 points from 35 games played this season.

The away side has been brilliant this season, as Michel has led Girona to their first-ever UEFA Champions League campaign for next season. Girona are currently second in the league, 15 points behind Real Madrid, however, they can be proud of their achievements this season.

Girona won the previous league meeting between the two sides 2-1 thanks to a Cristhian Stuani brace.

Valencia Team News

Mouctar Diakhaby, Jesus Vasquez, and Jaume Domenech are all unavailable due to injury problems. Fran Perez, Hugo Duro and Pepelu are all suspension risks.

Girona Team News

Cristhian Stuani is ruled out for this game. Juanpe, Miguel Gutierrez and Aleix Garcia are all suspension risks.

The recent history between the two teams suggests that Girona will be the favourites for this game. The visitors have won three out of the last five league games between the two sides with Valencia winning the remaining two games.

This fixture provides an average of 2.14 goals scored between the two teams. Recent history is the keyword when it comes to these two teams, having only faced each other in seven competitive fixtures in the league. Valencia has the better record historically having won four out of the seven meetings and losing three.

Valencia achieved the only league double between the two teams in 2018 where they recorded a 3-1 league aggregate win over their opponents. Interestingly, two of the three league victories that have fallen to Girona have come in the last two league meetings between the two sides.

The recent league meeting at the Mestalla resulted in a victory for Valencia in which Gennaro Gattuso was the manager for Valencia. Carlos Soler scored the only goal of the game before half-time and had to overcome adversity after being reduced to ten men in the 52nd minute.

The last time Girona tasted victory at the Mestalla was in the 2018/19 season where a single goal from Pere Pons gifted the away side the victory. In four of the seven meetings between the two sides, there have been four occasions where the winning side has kept a clean sheet. Twice for Valencia and twice for Girona.

In the seven competitive meetings between the two teams, there have been two dismissals – both for Valencia. In both of those games, Valencia were the winners by a single goal which included a 3-2 away win at Girona.

Valencia heads into this game with indifferent form overall in La Liga. The hosts have won two from their last five games in the league whilst losing three of the remaining fixtures. This form could be subject to change as Valencia hosts Rayo Vallecano before their weekend fixture against Girona.

In one of their more recent home fixtures, they were beaten 2-1 by Real Betis. Their last home victory (excluding the game against Rayo Vallecano) was against Getafe in March. Hugo Duro scored the only goal of the game in the 40th minute to give Valencia the victory.

Valencia’s home form has been relatively strong overall at the Mestalla. Valencia have played 17 games at home this season, having won eight, drawn five and lost only four times. This is subject to change since Valencia’s home fixture against Rayo Vallecano takes place beforehand.

The home side have averaged 1.71 points per game this season and have won 47% of their home fixtures this season. Their recent home record though is less than desirable having only once in their last five home games, losing twice, and drawing twice.

The one important statistic for Valencia this season has been their defensive record at the Mestalla. Valencia has conceded 0.65 goals per game this season at home, whilst having a clean sheet record of 53% in their games played.

Hugo Duro has been in great form for Valencia this season. The Spanish international has 13 goals in the league this season whilst scoring once every 219 minutes. Duro has only scored once in the last five games for Valencia.

Girona have built a solid foundation away from home to provide themselves a UEFA Champions League place next season. The away side have played 18 games away from home this season having won nine, drawn four and lost the remaining five fixtures.

Girona have recorded a 1.72–point average away from home this season and have won 50% of their games on the road this season. Despite having a 22% clean sheet rate away from home, the away side have scored 1.61 goals per game and have only lost 28% of their away fixtures this season.

Michel’s side have only won once in their last five away games, having drawn once and lost the remaining three. On the overall picture, they have won three of their last five in the league. In their last away fixture, Girona drew 2-2 with Deportivo Alaves thanks to goals from Eric Garcia and Yangel Herrera.

Artem Dovbyk is the leading scorer in this season’s La Liga. The Ukrainian striker has 20 goals this season with a goal contribution every 117 minutes.

Girona will be too strong for Valencia in this game and we back the newly qualified Champions League side to beat Valencia next weekend.

Valencia 0-2 Girona

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