After a 6-1 demolition in Baku, Newcastle have effectively booked their place in the last 16 of the Champions League, while Qarabag now arrive in England playing almost exclusively for pride as the two sides meet in the second leg of their European tie.
Newcastle’s 6-1 away win has given them a five‑goal aggregate cushion. Forward Anthony Gordon now has 10 goals in Europe this season after his quadruple in Baku, with further strikes from Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy completed last week's rout.
At St James’ Park this season, Newcastle have been particularly robust in Europe. They have won their last three Champions League home matches without conceding, leading at half‑time in each of those and consistently scoring in both halves. Across their last 20 home games in all competitions, they have gone over 1.5 goals in the vast majority, and all of their last ten matches (home and away) have featured over 1.5 total goals, underlining how rarely their fixtures stay cagey.
In Champions League play overall, Newcastle are now on 31 goals scored and 32 conceded across 20 matches (1.6 for, 1.6 against), with an xG for around 1.9 and xG against about 1.4, a profile that tends towards games with 2-4 goals rather than low‑scoring tight contests. With the aggregate already 6-1, Newcastle probably won't approach this game in full throttle, but certain players will no doubt be looking to catch the manager's eye.
Qarabag’s season‑long numbers confirm what the first leg suggested: they are dangerous going forward but far too open at this level. They've had 8 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 14 European matches, with a notable pattern of high‑scoring away games: a 3–1 win at Ferencvaros and a 4-2 home defeat to Ajax are among several fixtures that sailed over 2.5.
They have an xG for of 1.93 per match and xG against of 0.93 domestically, but with a huge home/away split in goals, with only 9% of home games over 2.5 but 67% of away games clearing that line, and 22% of away matches going over 3.5. In Europe specifically, they have only one clean sheet and an average of 5.78 shots on target faced per match, reflecting a defence that is continually under siege at this level.
It is, then, fair to expect Qarabag to ship a few more goals here in what should be a fairly comfortable win for the home side.
Newcastle 3-0 Qarabag
