PSG are looking to finish the job against fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco as they face off in the second leg of their Champions League tie.
The tie sits at 3-2 to PSG after a chaotic first leg that Monaco led through Folarin Balogun, only for Luis Enrique’s side to flip the game with a ruthless second‑half response from their young forwards. The opener was a thrilling encounter, with Monaco sharper early but PSG eventually creating more and better chances and finishing more clinically.
PSG’s underlying metrics mark them out as one of Europe’s most dominant home sides, with their xG for this season at 2.08 per match overall and a hefty 2.32 at home, with xG against just 0.95 overall and 0.88 at the Parc des Princes, underlining how rarely opponents generate high‑quality chances against them in Paris. Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of their matches (64% at home), and team‑shots data shows games at the Parc pass 23.5 total shots in 82% of fixtures, pointing to a consistently high event level even when scorelines are controlled.
Their BTTS profile is more restrained at 38%, below a Ligue 1 average of 50%, while over 2.5 hits in 52% of their league matches, slightly under league average indicating that PSG often win to nil or by margins that don’t require both teams to score. Luis Enrique’s men have won four straight Champions League knockout matches, including their last two at home, and are unbeaten in eight of their previous nine competitive fixtures at the Parc, winning the last two in Paris by an 8-0 combined scoreline.
Monaco’s Champions League numbers are those of a side who almost never play in low‑event games. Across an eight‑match UCL sample, they have scored 13 and conceded 13 (1.63 for and 1.63 against per game), with 6 of those 8 fixtures going over 2.5 and only two clean sheets. A four‑match home Champions League segment shows 10 scored and 5 conceded (2.5 for, 1.25 against) with 75% over 2.5, and even their poorer away runs, such as one sequence with 0.75 scored and 2 conceded per game, still produced 75% over‑2.5 outcomes, underlining how often their games tip into three‑goal territory regardless of venue.
Domestic data tell a similar story, with Monaco displaying an xG for rate of 1.43 (1.51 at home, 1.34 away) and xG against of 1.45 (1.34 home, 1.58 away), effectively balanced but slightly negative, and over‑2.5 in 61% of matches overall, 75% at home and 45% away.
This game should once again provide its fair share of goals, but it's a tie that the holders should seal in front of their own fans, and they'll look to do that in style.
PSG 3-1 Monaco
