Arsenal are hoping to see out the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Chelsea in front of their own fans On Tuesday night as they eye a place in the final.
- Date: 03/02/2026
- Kick-off: 8:00pm
- Location: Emirates Stadium, North London
The tie resumes with Arsenal 3-2 up on aggregate thanks to goals from Ben White, Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi in the first leg, with Alejandro Garnacho scoring twice to keep Chelsea in touch. Chelsea had more of the ball (58% possession), but Arsenal carved out slightly better chances, edging shots on target 6-5 and showing greater efficiency when opportunities came.
Across all competitions this season, Arsenal have been one of Europe’s strongest teams by underlying numbers. They have 28 wins already this season, scoring 81 goals in total, eight of those in the EFL Cup at an average of 2 per game. In league play, their xG for stands at around 1.73 per match and xG against at 0.89, giving them one of the best non‑penalty xG differentials in the Premier League. Their domestic goals stats shows average total goals of about 2.63 per match, with over 2.5 landing in 38% of fixtures, well below the league average of 59%, reflecting a team that often wins by controlling games rather than trading chances.
Chelsea arrive with very different underlying numbers. Across all competitions this season they have 20 wins, 8 draws and 9 defeats, scoring 75 goals (11 of those in the EFL Cup, at an average of 2.75 per game) which underlines how frequently their matches open up. Their overall 2025-26 goals average is around 2.03 scored per match, and their Premier League xG numbers show xG for of 1.59 per game and xG against of 1.30, showing a side that creates consistently but also gives up more than an elite defence would.
In BTTS terms Chelsea are among the most reliable sides in England this season, with 62% of their opening 21 Premier League fixtures seeing BTTS occur, significantly above many rivals and reflective of a pattern where they both score and concede in the majority of matches.
The task for the Blues is a herculean one given Arsenal’s strength on home soil. The Gunners have lost only once there since May 2025, and with Chelsea failing to win any of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the teams, an Arsenal win feels like the most likely outcome here.
Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
