Arsenal sit ahead of United in both the table and underlying metrics, while also holding the recent head‑to‑head edge, having won the last two league meetings between the sides. Recent form underscores that balance, as Arsenal come into this on a run of four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while United’s last six read two wins, three draws and one loss.
- Date: 25/01/2026
- Kick-off: 4:30pm
- Location: Emirates Stadium, North London
Arsenal’s season‑long numbers are those of a serious contender. Across the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, they have one of the best non‑penalty xG differences in the division, with xG for around 1.73 per match and xG against just 0.89, and they are averaging roughly 2.5 goals scored and 0.77 conceded over their last ten league games. At the Emirates, they score 2.50 goals per home match on average, roughly 77% above the league average, and they have scored at least once in nine of their last ten fixtures overall and in 14 of their last 17.
Defensively, Arsenal have been particularly reliable at home. They sit among the league’s best for clean sheets, with very few sides conceding fewer home goals, and they have a very low BTTS percentage relative to the rest of the division.
Manchester United come into the game with a very different statistical profile. United’s campaign has been a mix of impressive attacking spells and clear defensive issues, and their xG metrics reflect that, with xG for around the mid‑1s per match and xG against notably higher than Arsenal’s, leaving them well behind the Gunners on most underlying charts. Across the season they have tended to be one of the more high‑event teams in the league, particularly away from Old Trafford, with a clear tilt towards BTTS and over‑2.5 outcomes.
With the Red Devils under new management, the longer-term season data may not be wholly representative of the team that will take to the pitch at the Emirates, with the system and setup having changed completely following the arrival of Michael Carrick. In more recent weeks, United have have seen BTTS occur in four of their last five games, while over 2.5 goals have been scored in only two of their last five, reflecting a tightening of their defensive structure compared to the early weeks of the season.
