Brighton’s meeting with Sunderland at the Amex on Saturday looks is an intriguing encounter between two sides looking to seal European football for next season, with Brighton currently 10th and Sunderland 6th in the Premier League table.
- Date: 20/12/2025
- Kick-off: 3:00pm
- Location: Falmer Stadium, Brighton
Across the league season, Brighton average 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per match, giving an overall goals-per-game figure of exactly 3.00. Sunderland’s matches are lower scoring on average, with 1.19 scored and 1.06 conceded for a total of 2.25 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Brighton’s league games but only 38% of Sunderland’s, pointing towards a slight clash between a more open home side and a more restrained visitor.
Both teams to score has occurred in 69% of Brighton’s matches, compared with 44% for Sunderland. Brighton also show a strong pattern of second‑half activity, with an average of 1.81 total goals after the break and over 0.5 second‑half goals in 94% of their games. Sunderland’s profile is more conservative, with under 2.5 goals in 62% of their fixtures this season.
Brighton’s home record is solid: four wins, three draws and one defeat at the Amex so far, scoring 16 and conceding 11 (2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded per home game). At home, 75% of Brighton’s league matches have seen over 2.5 goals and 88% have seen both teams score, underlining how open their games on the south coast tend to be. Sunderland’s away form is more mixed, with two wins, two draws and four defeats on the road, scoring just four and conceding 10 (0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded per away game). Only 25% of Sunderland’s away fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals and just 25% have seen BTTS, reinforcing their tighter away pattern.
Brighton’s numbers reflect Fabian Hurzeler’s willingness to play on the front foot: they average 13.5 shots per match, with a relatively high expected‑goals figure of 1.57 per game and a BTTS rate close to 70%. At home they generate over 14 shots per match and five shots on target on average, suggesting they will try to control territory and probe repeatedly against Sunderland’s back line.Sunderland under Regis Le Bris look more pragmatic, with an overall xG of 1.08 and xG against of 1.69 but still limiting opponents to just 1.06 goals conceded per match. Their away data points towards a compact shape and longer spells without scoring themselves, with 63% of away games ending in Sunderland failing to find the net.
Taken together, the numbers point towards Brighton carrying the greater attacking threat at home and pushing the game towards a BTTS and over‑2.5 territory that is more typical of their season than Sunderland’s, while the visitors look to keep the contest controlled and capitalise on moments in transition.
Brighton 2-1 Sunderland
