Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Betting Tips

Middlesbrough make the long trip down to Southampton to take on a team who is desperate for a victory to keep their automatic promotion hopes alive.

Date: 29/03/24

Kick-off time: 15:00

Venue: St Mary’s Stadium

After enjoying a record-breaking 25-game unbeaten run earlier in the campaign which helped them surge up the table, Southampton have endured some difficulties leading to them falling away in the race for automatic promotion. Not long ago they were keeping pace with both Leeds United and Ipswich Town in pursuit of the then leaders Leicester, but they now sit in fourth place, eight points behind third and nine adrift of the top two. With 10 games remaining for the Saints, every game feels like a must win to close that gap once more.

Their opponents Middlesbrough currently occupy 10th place with an outside chance of making a late playoff push. Boro have just eight games remaining and are seven points behind Norwich City in sixth, but have the difficult task of having to overcome at least four teams in front of them as well as keeping a couple of sides below them at bay. If they are to keep these hopes alive, three points this weekend is a must.

Despite their recent slump, Southampton have found ways to win as of late, highlighted by their recent hard-fought wins against Sunderland and Birmingham. They scored four goals in each of these victories and they are the league’s third highest scorers with 73. Middlesbrough have kept three clean sheets in a row, so may be hard to break down, however. The hosts’ biggest threat is likely to come from Adam Armstrong who has scored 18 goals, which is second in the division. He has also provided 11 assists.

Since 2011, these two teams have only faced off five times, with Southampton just edging the head-to-head with three wins to two. Three of these meetings came in the Championship, whilst the Saints were triumphant in both fixtures in the top flight. They have often played out very close games, with all but one of these five being decided by one goal. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended in the favour of Middlesbrough, as they came from behind to win 2-1. Armstrong opened the scoring, but strikes from Riley McGree and Jonny Howson turned it around.

Southampton

Southampton have a few players who will be out until April. Kyle Walker-Peters and Ross Stewart are sidelined with muscle injuries, whilst Ryan Fraser and Juan Larios are also absent.

Middlesbrough

Boro have a few injuries to contend with. Darragh Lenihan and Thomas Smith are out for the season with Achilles injuries. Alex Bangura, Joshua Coburn and Dael Fry are expected back in early April, whilst Rav Van Den Berg is further behind in his recovery.

Southampton

In their last five games, Southampton have won two and lost three. After going on a long unbeaten run earlier this season, the Saints have struggled of late. However, they have picked up two wins in a row, though they have been far from straightforward. The most recent of those was a 4-2 home win against Sunderland. They made a strong start, going two goals up before half-time thanks to goals from both Stuart and Adam Armstrong. The visitors hit back, however, and pulled it back to 2-2 with 20 minutes to play. A Joe Rothwell brace in the space of three minutes put the Saints back in front with a comfortable cushion. They managed to hold on and secure three points.

The 4-3 away win at Birmingham was a lot more dramatic. The hosts took a very early lead which was cancelled out by Adam Armstrong shortly after. The Blues went back ahead through Jay Stansfield, but Southampton turned it around in four second half minutes. In this back and forth game, Juninho Bacuna levelled the score once more, despite his side being reduced to 10 men. With the match headed for a draw, Joe Aribo stepped up in the 96th minute to steal victory.

FA Cup action was also on the agenda, but the team were eliminated in the Fifth Round as they fell 3-0 at Anfield. This followed two home 2-1 defeats to Millwall and Hull which significantly damaged their automatic promotion hopes. Against Millwall, they fell behind early in the fifth minute, though Che Adams equalised after the half hour mark. The winner came from the spot as Zian Flemming converted just before the break. The game against Hull followed a different pattern as they were 2-0 down before half-time. Aribo’s 88th minute goal was too late to mount any comeback.

Middlesbrough

In their last five games, Middlesbrough have won three, drawn one and lost one. It has been a good run for Boro, as they picked up some important points. They did drop points in their most recent outing, however, as they were held to a goalless draw at home to Blackburn Rovers. There were 30 shots combined between the pair, but neither side were able to find the breakthrough.

They held Birmingham to zero shots on target in their meeting, as they won 1-0 away from home. The hosts edged possession, but Boro were able to come away with three points thanks to Riley McGree’s 17th minute winner. This followed a 2-0 victory at QPR. There were no goals in the first half, but despite the hosts’ superiority on the ball, goals from Emmanuel Latte Lath and Marcus Forss meant they went home with maximum points. In their 3-1 win against Norwich, they had to come from behind. Ashley Barnes put the Canaries in front, but they had a man dismissed on the half hour mark. Boro took advantage of their extra man as Forss and Latte Lath turned it around before the break. Lukas Engel added a third to put the game to bed.

Their only loss in this stretch came away at Stoke City. They enjoyed the majority of the ball, but could not find the back of the net. Goals from Bae Jun-ho and Lewis Baker either side of half-time condemned Boro to defeat.

Middlesbrough have enjoyed an upturn in form, but run into a Southampton team fighting for promotion. The Saints have suffered some setbacks lately, but have found a way to win in their last two. Expect this streak to continue at home – Southampton 3-1 Middlesbrough

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Southampton vs Middlesbrough will not be available to watch on TV in the UK.

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