Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Relegation-threatened Mainz will be hoping to secure an important win over Champions League semi-finalists Borussia Dortmund at the weekend.

Location: MEWA Arena

Date: 11/05/2024

Kick-Off: 5:30 PM

Mainz are 18th in the Bundesliga after 32 games and the prospect of them entering the relegation play-off place is daunting for the supporters. The home side are one point behind Union Berlin, and they will move ahead of them even if they avoid defeat against Borussia Dortmund.

Mainz has a superior goal difference to Union Berlin and is hoping teams like Freiburg and Koln can do them a favour elsewhere. Mainz remaining game away from Borussia Dortmund is Wolfsburg away on the final day.

As for the visitors, when this fixture takes place Borussia Dortmund will have just booked their trip to Wembley for the Champions League final. Dortmund managed to beat Paris Saint Germain 2-0 on aggregate following their 1-0 away win in Paris on Tuesday night where Mats Hummels scored the only goal of the game.

In the league standings, Borussia Dortmund have qualified for next season’s Champions League despite being in fifth place. Germany was awarded the extra place due to the teams involved in this season’s European competitions and their performances.

In the most recent league meeting between the two sides, it finished all square. Julian Brandt had given Borussia Dortmund the lead before Sepp van den Berg equalised just before half-time.

Mainz 05 Team News

Stefan Bell and Karim Onsiwo are both ruled out with injuries. Phillip Mwene served a suspension in their most recent league game, so he should be available for selection against Borussia Dortmund.

Mainz has up to five suspension risks including the likes of Sepp van den Berg and Ludovic Ajorque.

Dortmund Team News

Remy Bensebaini, Abdoulaye Kamara and Julien Duranville. Karim Adeyemi and Mats Hummels are both suspension risks.

The recent history between the two sides suggests that the Champions League semi-finalists will be the favourites for this game against Mainz. Borussia Dortmund have won three out of the last five league meetings between the two sides and unbeaten in those five games played.

On average this fixture has provided 2.58 goals between the two teams in direct competition. In the last 20 meetings between the two teams, Borussia Dortmund have a superior record over their opponents, Mainz. The away side have won 12, drawn four and lost the remaining four against their opponents.

Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last seven games against Mainz with their most recent defeat taking place in 2020. The game finished 2-0 for Mainz away at Signal Iduna Park where goals from Jonathan Burkardt and current Crystal Palace striker Jean-Phillipe Mateta gave Mainz the victory.

In the last ten meetings between the two sides, there have not been any dismissals in this fixture. Interestingly, the last time someone was dismissed in this fixture was in 2014 when Niko Bungert was sent off for Mainz in a 4-1 loss away at Borussia Dortmund.

The last time either side tasted victory in this fixture was last season, when the visitors for that game Borussia Dortmund beat Mainz 2-1. Jae-Sung Lee opened the scoring for Mainz in the second minute before Borussia Dortmund responded immediately through Julian Ryerson. The winner came late as current Nottingham Forest loanee Giovanni Reyna scored in the 93rd minute to give Borussia Dortmund the victory.

Despite not beating their opponents Borussia Dortmund since 2020, Mainz are unbeaten in their last two games against their visitors. The last time Mainz secured a victory at home against Borussia Dortmund was in 2014. An own goal from Matthias Ginter and a goal from former Leicester City striker Shinji Okazaki secured the victory for Mainz.

Mainz will be somewhat confident knowing this game is not taking place away from home as they seek to get vital points at this stage of the season. Mainz have just below average home form this season, although it’s the main reason why they’re not already playing in the second tier of German Football.

The home side have played 16 games at home this season, winning five, drawing five and losing six. Interestingly, Mainz have averaged 1.25 points per game this season at home, whilst having won three out of their last five home games, drawing twice. In comparison, Mainz are yet to win a single away game in the Bundesliga this season.

In general, Mainz are unbeaten in their last five games in the Bundesliga, winning twice and drawing the remaining three games. In their most recent game, they drew 1-1 with Heidenheim. Jonathan Burkardt opened the scoring in the first half and yet Mainz was denied a pivotal victory thanks to Tim Kleidenheit’s second-half goal.

Their most recent league win at home came against Hoffenheim in April. Mainz were superb as they recorded an impressive 4-1 win over their opposition who are closing in on European Football. Hoffenheim took the lead through Pavel Kaderabek and the score remained 1-0 at the interval. Mainz produced a stunning second-half display in which goals from Jonathan Burkardt, Phillip Mwene, Brajan Gruda and Karim Onisiwo secured a remarkable comeback victory for the relegation-threatened side.

Mainz have won 31% of their home games this season and boasts an impressive scoring rate in front of their home crowd. The home side averages 1.25 goals per game and has kept only four clean sheets this season at home.

Undoubtedly Jonathan Burkardt will be key to their chances against Borussia Dortmund. The German striker is the club’s leading scorer in all competitions this season and has seven goals scored in the Bundesliga. Burkhardt has two assists also and contributes a goal every 195 minutes for his side. The 23-year-old is in impressive form having scored three goals in his last four appearances.

The visitors, Borussia Dortmund, have identical form in comparison to away from home and at the Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund have played 16 games away from home, winning eight, drawing six times and losing only twice. Dortmund have won four out of their last five away games and have won twice in their last five games in general.

The away side has averaged 1.88 points away from home and it’s the same points average as what they have on home soil. Borussia Dortmund have lost only 13% of their away fixtures this season in the Bundesliga in comparison to 25% at home. Borussia Dortmund have scored an average of 1.94 goals per game away from, however, it’s the defensive statistics on their travels that have given them a great platform.

Borussia Dortmund have kept clean sheets in 31% of their away games this season and has only conceded 1.13 goals per game away from home. It’s worth mentioning also that the away side has only failed to score in 6% of their away fixtures this season.

The away side has only lost once in their last five games in a humbling defeat at the hands of RB Leipzig. The last time Borussia Dortmund tasted victory on the road in the Bundesliga was the 2-1 victory over Borussia Monchengladbach where a brace from Marcel Sabitzer secured the win in which Dortmund were reduced to ten men.

Niclas Fullkrug will be heavily watched this summer for the European Championships as a possible contender for the Golden Boot. The German striker has been in great form for Borussia Dortmund this season with 12 goals and eight assists in 28 matchday starts.

Mainz is struggling down the bottom of the league at the moment, so we expect an away win. Mainz 1-3 Borussia Dortmund.

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The game will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Football and the OneFootball streaming service.

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