La Liga Predictions & Best Bets

Here are our predictions for the upcoming 2024/25 season, looking at the best odds across the entire division.

All odds are subject to change.

Both currently and projecting into the future, it's hard to look past Real Madrid as the likely dominant force in La Liga. Independent of Barcelona's issues, Los Blancos tick almost every box you want from a prospective title contender coming into this season: they're the defending champions, their squad has a very good age profile and their arsenal has been strengthened in the summer - arguably quite significantly.

Madrid have been forced to contend with the departure of midfielder Toni Kroos, who despite still operating at a blatantly world-class level has respectably called time on his playing career. However, the damage from that loss has been curtailed by the almost belated arrival of French star Killian Mbappé, who has landed in Madrid on a free transfer from Paris Saint-Germain. He's not a like-for-like replacement for Kroos, of course, but it's hard to argue the squad has become weaker after being bolstered by a man almost unanimously regarded as a top-three player in the world. There are one or two concerns about Mbappé's natural fit in and amongst Madrid's already bloated wealth of forward options, but manager Carlo Ancelotti excels at platforming elite attacking profiles - just look at the number of Ballon d'Or winners he's coached - so Madrid fans can be quietly confident that Mbappé will reach a career-best level in the Spanish capital.

In addition to Mbappé, Real Madrid will also welcome 18-year-old phenom Endrick into the fold, the Brazilian striker who's considered one of the world's hottest prospects. Already a senior international, Edrick isn't just one for the future - he's ready to contribute immediately. Endrick is a versatile forward with a number of favourable physical tools - mainly pace over a short distance, sharp agility and plenty of raw power - while on a technical level, he's a ferocious ball striker and an efficient dribbler. It takes quite a talent to generate a hysterical level of hype in Brazil, but that's the level of prospect that the striker is considered to be in his home country and while he's still raw, there's a tonne of match-winning potential there.

Los Blancos finished last season with 95 points, ten clear of Barcelona in second, losing just one game, and it's very tough to imagine them suffering a major dropoff this season. On top of the new arrivals, young stars like Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga and Arda Güler could hit new heights as a consequence of natural progression, while the likes of Vinícius Júnior and Federico Valverde are coming off career-best seasons, blessing Madrid with an embarrassment of riches.

Madrid have a chokehold on global talent in this sport and seem to be the preferred destination for almost every player on the planet, of all ages. With how well-run the club is and how shrewd a transfer strategy they deploy, it's hard to imagine a season in the near future where they won't be considered title favourites.

Barcelona: 2nd Place

Almost the obvious pick for 2nd place, we're backing Barcelona to trail their bitter rivals for the third time in four seasons. Barcelona are coming into this season under the guidance of a new man: former Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick. Flick has been a fairly divisive appointment in Catalonia; despite winning a treble with Bayern Munich 2019-20, the German is coming off the back of a very poor job with the German National Team that saw his side exit the World Cup in the group stage in 2022. Not only that, but there are also concerns over how his preferred style of deploying very high defensive lines and intense pressing strategies, while often bypassing midfield play during the buildup phase in possession, suits Barça's squad, something that will be interesting to follow.

The club are yet to make a move in the transfer market so they're already lagging well behind Real Madrid in that regard. Club president Joan Laporta has confirmed the club are making every attempt to sign Athletic Bilbao winger Nico Williams, who's coming off the back of a scintillating Euro 2024 campaign. There are, though, growing doubts about the 22-year-olds arrival, with Barcelona's poor financial situation slowing the pace of developments.

Much of this paints a grim prospect from their perspective, but there are still reasons for cautious optimism for those of a Catalan persuasion. Barça's financial woes are well-publicised at this point and they aren't going to ease any time soon, but the club is, and has been for a while, sitting on a gold mine: La Masia. 17-year-old winger Lamine Yamal, likely the best teenager on the planet, emphatically broke into the first-team last season from the club's world-leading academy and is expected to kick on once again this forthcoming campaign, likewise for stellar young centre-back Pau Cubarsí, also only 17. With exciting youngsters such as Guille Fernández, Marc Bernal, Pau Prim, Toni Fernández and Quim Junyet knocking on the door of the first team, there is hope that more breakthroughs from La Masia this season can lay the foundations for Barça to compete with Real Madrid's might in the transfer market.

Atlético Madrid: 3rd Place

In 3rd we have, yep, you guessed it, Atlético Madrid. After over a decade of success under Diego Simeone, the last few seasons have marked the clear decline of a group that have given everything to the club, both physically and mentally. Last season was a struggle for Atlético on the pitch, with the team looking like they might fall short of a top-four finish for a large portion of the season. A late Athletic Bilbao collapse meant they finished 4th quite comfortably in the end, but it was far from an impressive campaign.

As a result, the squad is now entering a transitional phase and is undergoing a notable amount of turnover. Stalwarts of the Simeone era, Saúl Ñíguez and Stefan Savić, have now departed the club, while Álvaro Morata is bringing a significant period at the club to an end as he departs for Milan.

In terms of incomings, Atléti kicked off their transfer window with the signing of Spanish international centre-back Robin Le Normand for over €30m, a much-needed addition for a side that spent most of last season playing 35-year-old midfielder Axel Witsel at the heart of their defence.

Morata's departure means there's now a gaping hole at the top end of the pitch and it seems like the responsibility to fill that void might fall on the shoulders of Samu Omorodion, a very promising 20-year-old striker who impressed on loan at Alavés last season.

It's widely reported that Atlético have their eyes on Chelsea's Conor Gallagher and are close to agreeing a deal for the transfer of the 24-year-old midfielder. There will still be concerns about the balance of profiles within Atlético's midfield following Gallagher's arrival, should the transfer be completed, but the Englishman is a Simeone player through and through and it's easy to see why the move could be very successful.

It's probably going to take more than one transfer window for Atlético to fully transition into a side capable of competing for La Liga again. Star player Antoine Griezmann is ageing, as is club captain Koke, both of whom will need replacing long-term. Their early business has been impressive this summer though, and if they can secure a top four finish and mount another quarter-final run in the Champions League they should be financially sound enough to continue their rebuild in a year's time.

Villarreal: 4th Place

Now, 4th in La Liga is a very tough call this season and it's likely going to be hotly contested. Real Sociedad will be very strong, while we expect Girona to remain competitive despite a high squad turnover and even Sevilla, who have done some very good work in the transfer market on paper, could be a threat. However, we're going to go out on a limb and back Villarreal to take a big leap from last season and claim a top four finish.

The Yellow Submarine finished 8th with 53 points last season, but they made up an impressive amount of ground in the second half of the season after a shoddy first few months of the campaign that saw them cycle through three managers by mid-November before Marcelino García Toral took the reigns. After losing seven of their first 13 games, Villarreal surged under Marcelino and lost only two of their last 18 in La Liga, perhaps providing a window into what's to come this season.

In the transfer market, Villarreal have lost goalkeeper Filip Jörgensen to Chelsea in a high-profile transfer and centre-back Jorge Cuenca looks close to signing for Fulham, but they've also been active in their recruitment, signing centre-back Willy Kambwala from Manchester United for €11.5m, defender Sergi Cardona from Las Palmas and midfielder Pape Gueye from Marseille.

Manager Marcelino can rely on an excellent blend of youth and experience in his squad. In midfielder Álex Baena and forwards Ilias Akhomach and Yeremy Pino, Villarreal have some of the best young players in La Liga, the latter of which will feel like a new signing after spending the vast majority of last season on the sidelines. So while backing the East Coast team to work their way back into the Champions League is a big call, we think all the fundamentals are in place for them to become a top four team once again.

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad were one of the notable disappointments in La Liga last season. The Basque club finished 4th in 2022-23 and after following that up with what felt like a smart summer in the transfer window, the expectation was that they'd be a major force in Spain's top division last season. La Real started well, losing just three of their first 19 league games and topping their Champions League group, but following the winter break they seemed to lose all of their momentum and struggled to gain it back, exiting the Champions League in the last 16 and finishing 6th in the league.

This summer has seen them lose centre-back Robin Le Normand in a big-money move to Atlético Madrid, but they've made some smart signings themselves, bringing in left-back Javi López from Alavés and versatile left-sided defender Sergio Gómez from Manchester City.

They've so far kept hold of midfielder Martín Zubimendi and winger Takefusa Kubo, two of many top-quality players in the squad, so if they can keep further outgoings to a minimum there's no reason they can't mount a strong top four push again.

Girona

Last season was unprecedented from Girona's perspective as they secured their highest-ever La Liga finish, finishing in 3rd place with 81 points. Losing just one of their first 23 games, they spent much of the season involved in the title race and despite tailing off from February onwards, 2023-24 was both memorable and excellent for everyone involved, with the club playing one of the most entertaining, high-octane brands of football in Europe.

As you would expect in a transfer window following a season where a small club greatly overachieves, Girona have lost a number of key players, with winger Sávio and defenders Yan Couto and Eric García all returning to their parent clubs following very successful loan spells while midfielder Aleix García has secured an €18m move to German champions Bayer Leverkusen. Not only that, but Girona look on the verge of suffering what would be a major knock to their chances this season as striker Artem Dovbyk, who won the La Liga Golden Boot with 24 goals last season, appears close to sealing a move to AS Roma for a big fee.

Big blows indeed, but the Catalan club have been very savvy with their recruitment, bringing in talented Czech centre-back Ladislav Krejčí for €12m, Spanish U21 international defender Alejandro Francés, Spanish international forward Abel Ruiz and winger Bryan Gil, who despite falling short of expectations at Tottenham Hotspur is still young, supremely talented and suits La Liga much more than the Premier League from a stylistic perspective. Girona have also taken a €500k gamble on Dutch midfielder Donny van de Beek following his nightmare in Manchester.

Girona can also be buoyed by the fact they've kept hold of manager Michel, the current favourite to replace Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, who is the architect of everything good about the team. Retaining the services of midfielders Yangel Herrera and Viktor Tsyhankov could also prove crucial.

Additionally, in the likes of Arnau Martínez, Joel Roca and Jastin García, Girona have a collection of very promising young players who have the potential to deliver breakout seasons this year, so while we expect a pretty notable dropoff compared to last season for Girona, we still think they'll remain competitive.

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano are a slight outsider for relegation from La Liga this season and we think it might just be their time. The Madrid-based club finished in 17th place last season with 38 points, ensuring survival by a margin of five points. Rayo won only one of their last six games of the season and were it not for the fact the three sides below them delivered such a shoddy showing, Granada and Almería both finished on only 21 points, their fate could have been different.

Rayo were the second lowest scorers in the entirety of La Liga last season with just 29 goals in 38 games and they've done little to address that glaring issue in the transfer market, with their only incomings Pelayo Fernández, a young defender from Barcelona B on a free, and Gerard Gumbau and Adri Embarba, a pair of midfielders on loan from Granada and Almería.

Getafe

Getafe didn't have a terrible campaign last season as they finished 11th on 43 points, but there's been some concerning movement in the transfer window that could plunge them into trouble this time around.

Getafe were very poor at the back last season, shipping a total of 54 goals in 38 games, and they're yet to make any defensive reinforcements that would instil any confidence that those issues will likely be resolved.

The Madrid club have also been hit by a number of significant losses. Manchester United loanee Mason Greenwood was a big part of Getafe's attack last season, registering 14 goal contributions, and has now signed for Marseille on a permanent deal. Not only that, but Serbian Nemanja Maksimović was probably their best performer in the middle of the park last season but has opted against signing a new contract in favour of departing for Panathinaikos on a free transfer. Add to that the departure of the experienced Jaime Mata and there are quite a few holes in Getafe's squad.

Players have been recruited, notably goalkeeper Jiří Letáček from FC Baník Ostrava, midfielder Álex Sola from Real Sociedad and forward Peter González from Real Madrid Castilla - with Diego Rico making his loan move from Sociedad permanent - but those moves still leave a big quality deficit in the squad when compared against last season's roster.

Las Palmas

Las Palmas finished in 16th with 40 points last season but this campaign could prove more tricky to navigate. Manager García Pimienta has left for Sevilla in what was a pretty big hit to this season's survival prospects and has been replaced by Luis Carrión, a man brought in from Real Oviedo with very little experience at this level.

The club from the Canary Islands have been very pretty busy in the transfer market, signing goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen from NEC Nijmegen, Adnan Januzaj on loan from Sevilla, forward Iván Cédric from Real Valladolid and, in a deal few would have expected, striker Oli McBurnie from Sheffield United. Marvin Park's loan move from Real Madrid has also been made permanent.

The issue is that very few of those transfers feel like needle movers at the bottom of the league and there are a number of significant outgoings yet to be addressed. Defenders Saúl Coco and Sergi Cardona have left for Torino and Villarreal and have not been replaced, while Munir El Haddadi, who played a lot of minutes last season, has not renewed his contract. Máximo Perrone and Julián Araujo have also returned to Manchester City and Barcelona following their loans last season, so Las Palmas need a big injection of quality that is yet to come if they are to stand a serious chance of survival.

All in all, Las Palmas' squad feels weaker than it was last season and with the uncertainty surrounding the man in charge it could be a long season ahead for Los Amarillos.