Croatia
Scotland
3
4.40
9.40
70%
80%
60%
Both of these sides are out of form on paper, but Scotland's is much more concerning. Croatia have only one win in their last five but Scotland have only one win in 19 games, while Croatia have eleven wins in that period.
Croatia have lost only once since June 2022, and won the most recent head-to-head meeting by a 3-1 scoreline.
These two teams generally produce entertaining encounters too, with over 2.5 goals having been scored in three of both side's last five matches. Croatia 2-1 Scotland.
This Saturday, Croatia and Scotland lock horns in the UEFA Nations League, with both sides in need of a win for very different reasons.
Sitting second in Nations League A, Group 1, Croatia have made a decent start to this campaign having accumulated three points from their opening two fixtures. However, the 2018 World Cup finalists know that a second-place finish brings no tangible success, and after a strong run to the final of the last edition of the Nations League, where they finished as runners-up in 2023, they'll want another crack at the trophy, a piece of silverware they'll think they deserve after what has been the most successful period in the nation's history.
After their successful World Cup campaign in 2022, where they reached the semi-finals before falling to Argentina, Croatia appeared to be in good shape heading into Euro 2024. However, the tournament proved to be a sobering experience, with Zlatko Dalić’s side crashing out at the group stage in a fairly meek manner. That poor showing raised questions about the makeup of profiles within the squad, with the squad's ageing core and the need for rejuvenation brought to the forefront of the discourse, with the forward areas being highlighted as a major area of concern.
Croatia must attempt to address this glaring issue, and Zlatko Dalić, who is nearing his eighth year in charge of the national team, is tasked with overseeing this rebuild. While Croatia’s midfield remains strong, despite the ageing nature of players such as Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić, the real issue lies further up the pitch. In Germany, Croatia's attack looked one-dimensional and lacking in dynamism and pace, with the forward line still relying on the experience of Andrej Kramarić and Ivan Perišić. There is, then, a clear need for younger, more athletic players who can offer a cutting edge in the final third, but such players don't simply grow on trees.
That will be Croatia's major issue heading towards the 2026 World Cup, but the Balkan side have every reason to be confident heading into this weekend's game with Scotland. Their experience in major tournaments and recent track record in the Nations League—reaching the final in 2023—positions them as the second favourites for this group. The team still boasts one of the most balanced and technical midfields in Europe, which allows them to grab games by the scruff of the neck. Against a struggling Scotland side, Croatia will really fancy themselves for three points.
On the other side of the spectrum, Scotland come into this fixture off the back of a torrid few months. Steve Clarke’s men sit at the bottom of Group 1 with no points to their name, and their recent form offers little in the way of encouragement. Since securing qualification for Euro 2024 in the spring of 2023, Scotland’s performances have deteriorated rapidly; an eye-catching start to their qualification campaign—highlighted by an impressive win over Spain—momentum evaporated as they failed to maintain that standard in subsequent matches.
Scotland’s dismal form carried into Euro 2024, where they failed to claim a single win. The Tartan Army entered the tournament with high hopes, but the team looked disjointed and bereft of ideas, exiting at the group stage without making any significant impact, meaning they have still never reached the knockout stage of a major tournament. Since then, results have not improved, and Clarke’s side have managed just one win since September 2023. While Clarke is not believed to be under immediate threat of losing his job, there is a growing sense of discontent amongst the fanbase and pressure for Clarke to produce results is growing rapidly.
A key issue for Scotland is a lack of match-winning quality up top. The team is very reliant on the goals of Scott McTominay, a top player in his own right, but not a man capable of carrying an entire attack to what would class as relative success for Scotland. When the chips are down, there are few players in the squad capable of producing game-winning moments of the highest quality.
However, there are some rays of hope for Scotland, most notably in the form of 18-year-old winger Ben Doak. Currently on loan at Middlesbrough from Liverpool, Doak has been one of the most talked-about young talents in Scottish football, with his pace and trickery making him one of the best prospects to come out of the country in a long while. There is a growing expectation that he could be the player to help revitalise Scotland’s attack, though it is surely far too soon to place the burden of national expectation squarely on his shoulders.
This game will be televised live on ITV4 to all UK viewers.
Croatia Team News:
The home side will be without defender Marin Pongračić, while Josip Šutalo is a major doubt, potentially leaving the squad with just four defenders.
Croatia used three at the back last time out, and could be set to continue with that setup here.
Predicted lineup: Livaković; Erlić, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol; Jakić, Modrić, Kovačić, Sučić, Sosa; Matanović, Petković.
Scotland Team News:
At the age of 41, goalkeeper Craig Gordon has returned to the Scotland squad to provide competition for Angus Gunn, who's come under fire in recent international breaks.
John McGinn will miss out through injury, as he joins Kieran Tierney, Scott McKenna, Aaron Hickey, Lewis Ferguson and Nathan Patterson on the sidelines.
Predicted lineup: Gunn; Ralston, Hanley, Souttar, Robertson; Gilmour, McClean; Christie, McTominay, Doak; Dykes.
Croatia's form overall is poor, with Zlatko Dalić's side having won only one of their last five games. Fortunately, that win came in their most recent game, where a goal from Luka Modrić secured a 1-0 win over Poland.
Prior to that, Croatia were narrowly beaten 2-1 by Portugal after falling 2-0 down early doors before a Diogo Dalot own goal narrowed the deficit, a result that followed a 1-1 draw with Italy, a 2-2 draw with Albania and a 3-0 loss to Spain.
Scotland's form is even worse than that of Croatia, though, with Steve Clarke's side winning only one of their last nineteen games. Their latest outing was a 2-1 defeat to Portugal, where despite taking the lead through Scott McTominay, they were ultimately toppled by goals from Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Before that, Scotland were beaten 2-3 by Poland in what was a heartbreaking defeat. Clarke's men fell 0-2 behind but fought back to level the scores 2-2 through Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay, but a 97th-minute penalty from the visitors proved to a dramatic dagger to the hearts of the Scots.
Those results followed a 0-1 loss to Hungary, a 1-1 draw with Switzerland and a 5-1 loss to Germany.
Nations League - League A - Group 1 | Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | |
| 2 |  Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 |  Poland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 |  Scotland | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | |
| Last updated 08/10/2024 | ||||||||
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