Finland vs. England: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

Despite the performance against Greece, England should still win this game relatively comfortably - the question is just how comfortably. It's really hard to guess just what kind of response we'll see from Lee Carsley and England, but England have still kept two clean sheets in their last three games, so they should be able to shut Finland out here.

England have averaged 1.4 goals per game from their last five matches, and we don't expect the Three Lions to go on a scoring spree in this one, with the team likely still suffering from a hangover in light of Thursday night. Finland 0-2 England.

This Sunday, England travel to Finland in hope of getting their UEFA Nations League campaign back on track.

• Date: 13/10/2024
• Kick-off time: 17:00
• Location: Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki

Finland find themselves rooted to the foot of Group 2, having lost all three of their matches so far in the competition. It’s been a particularly tough campaign for the Finns, whose struggles are emblematic of a broader decline that has followed their qualification for Euro 2020. At that time, the team seemed to be on an upward trajectory, led by striker Teemu Pukki and a relatively solid defensive unit. However, since then, their fortunes have only gone south.

After missing out on qualification for Euro 2024, Finland’s poor form has continued into the Nations League, and the team’s inability to pick up points has left them on the brink of relegation to League C, something that would mark a significant setback for Finnish football. If they are relegated, it would not only be a blow to their current standing but also make future qualification campaigns, such as for the 2026 World Cup, significantly harder due to tougher seeding.

At the heart of Finland’s struggles is the ageing core of their squad. Many of the players who were pivotal during their successful Euro 2020 qualification run are now on the wrong side of 30, and their performances have declined accordingly. Pukki, at 34, remains a key figure, but his once-reliable goal-scoring ability has started to wane. Meanwhile, several other experienced players, including the likes of Tim Sparv and Paulus Arajuuri, are either retired or winding down their careers, leaving the national team in desperate need of rejuvenation.

With no points from their first three games, the Finns are under significant pressure to get a result on Sunday. A defeat would all but guarantee relegation, as it would leave them with little hope of catching the other teams in the group. A draw would give them some breathing room, but it would then mean that a win away in Ireland next month is non-negotiable.

On the other side, England come into this match under a very different type of pressure. After a mixed run of form, the spotlight is firmly on interim manager Lee Carsley. When he took charge following Gareth Southgate's departure, Carsley was initially seen as a temporary solution in public, but privately it seems clear that the FA had high hopes of giving him the job permanently, ensuring he passed what is effectively an audition period.

The public mood was starting to swing in favour of Carsley after an encouraging start, including comprehensive victories against Ireland and Finland earlier in the campaign, and it looked like he might be the breath of fresh air that the national team needed.

However, that momentum was abruptly halted by a dismal defeat to Greece earlier this week, a result that not only knocked England off course in their bid for promotion back to League A but also cast serious doubts over Carsley’s tactical acumen and suitability for the job. The England manager was widely criticised for his team selection against Greece, with some labelling it as naïve. Carsley fielded a highly attacking lineup, starting all Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka together, but it backfired as the team struggled to maintain balance and cohesion on the pitch.

England looked disjointed with the ball, lacking the control and structure expected at this level, and they were soft without it, frequently exposed by Greece’s counter-attacks. The loss has left Carsley in a difficult position, and with the FA yet to make a decision on a permanent appointment, the pressure is now squarely on him to deliver three extremely convincing performances in England's three remaining fixtures in this competition, starting on Sunday.

This game will be televised live to all UK viewers on ITV 1.

Finland Team News:

Kaan Kairinen will miss out after his withdrawal from the squad, but otherwise Finland boast a fully fit lineup here.

Former Norwich man Teemu Pukki will battle it out with Joel Pohjanpalo of Venezia to start up top, with the latter seemingly likely to come out on top.

Predicted lineup: Hradecky; Ståhl, Hoskonen, Ivanov, Uronen; Schüller, Peltola; Lod, Kamara, Antman; Pohjanpalo.

England Team News:

Harry Kane missed the game against Greece in the week with injury and it remains unclear whether or not he'll be fit enough to start this one.

Changes following the game in the week are certain, with Marc Guéhi likely to come in for Rico Lewis, with Levi Colwill moving to left-back.

Angel Gomes could also reclaim his place in the midfield, with Kyle Walker vying for a spot at right-back.

Bukayo Saka is very likely to miss out after picking up an injury against Greece.

Predicted lineup: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guéhi, Colwill; Rice, Gomes; Palmer, Bellingham, Gordon; Watkins.

Finland's form reads very worryingly as they come into this game with four losses and one draw from their last five games. Finland's latest encounter was a very disappointing 1-2 defeat to the Republic of Ireland, where despite taking a 17th-minute lead through Joel Pohjanpalo, only for the visiting Irish side to turn the game around, eventually winning it in the 88th minute.

Prior to that, Finland lost 2-0 against England in the reverse fixture at Wembley, a result that followed a 3-0 defeat against Greece, a 2-2 draw with Scotland and a 4-2 loss away at Portugal.

England's most recebt outing was a 1-2 loss at home to Greece. With what was an obscenely attacking lineup, England never looked like properly balanced unit and looked extremely vulnerable on the counter attack, with the Greeks playing through England's midfield with ease.

England also looked physically outmatches with the likes of Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Rico Lewis all starting, and despite Jude Bellingham's fine equaliser in the 88th minute following Greece's openening goal early in the second half, a piece of totally amateurish defending allowed Greece to reclaim the lead in stoppage time and pick up a huge three points.

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