France vs. Italy: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

France have won all of their last three head-to-head meetings with Italy and have lost only once against their Southern European counterparts since the 2006 World Cup final.

Additionally, France have won all of their last five competitive home games, which includes a 4-0 win over the Netherlands.

Italy have a lot of work to do after a disastrous Euro 2024 campaign and in terms of individual talent, they're some way off the French right now. We expect the home side to win this one with relative comfort. France 2-0 Italy.

The upcoming UEFA Nations League clash between France and Italy promises to be a telling encounter, not just in the context of the game itself but also as a barometer for the current state of both national teams.

• Date: 06/09/2024
• Kick-off time: 19:45
• Location: Parc des Princes, Paris

France’s performance at Euro 2024 can best be described as paradoxical. On paper, reaching the semi-finals is a respectable achievement, yet the level of performance displayed by the team has raised eyebrows. Scoring just four goals throughout the tournament, with two of those being own goals by their opponents, hardly inspires confidence in their attacking capabilities. For a team blessed with a wealth of offensive talent, France’s inability to pose a consistent threat in front of goal was stark and alarming.

Despite their attacking struggles, France’s defence remains their stronghold, a characteristic that has become synonymous with Didier Deschamps’ tenure as manager. The team was typically resilient at the back, rarely looking troubled defensively and conceding just two goals in six matches during the Euros. This defensive solidity has been the bedrock of France’s success under Deschamps, who has now been at the helm for over a decade.

However, the news that Deschamps will be extending his stay as France's manager until after the 2026 World Cup has been met with mixed reactions. On one hand, Deschamps has a proven track record in tournament football, having guided France to the World Cup title in 2018 and the Nations League title in 2021. His pragmatic, counter-attacking style, while often criticised as overly conservative, has brought tangible success. On the other hand, there is a growing sense among some sections of the French footballing community that the team has outgrown Deschamps’ approach. With an array of attacking talent at his disposal, many feel that France should be adopting a more proactive and expansive style of play.

Deschamps’ decision to bring in new faces, such as Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise, could be seen as an attempt to refresh the squad and perhaps add a new dimension to their play. Olise’s inclusion is particularly intriguing; the winger has shown glimpses of immense potential at club level, and his creativity and flair could be exactly what France need to rejuvenate their attack. Whether Deschamps will grant him significant game time in such a crucial match, however, remains to be seen.

Italy, meanwhile, enter this fixture with a point to prove after what can only be described as a dismal Euro 2024 campaign. Knocked out at the round of 16 stage by Switzerland, Italy’s performance fell well short of expectations, especially considering the talent at their disposal and the pedigree of their manager, Luciano Spalletti.

Injuries played a part in their underwhelming performance, but the fact remains that Italy were uninspired and unconvincing throughout the tournament. Spalletti, who took charge of the national team after a successful stint with Napoli, has come under significant scrutiny. Known for his attacking philosophy and tactical acumen at club level, Spalletti was expected to bring a more dynamic style of play to the Azzurri. However, Italy’s Euro 2024 campaign was marred by a lack of creativity and a failure to maximise on the talent within the squad.

Despite the criticism, Spalletti’s job is safe for now, with the Italian FA opting to retain him as manager until after the 2026 World Cup. This decision places significant pressure on Spalletti to turn things around and deliver results, particularly in the Nations League, where Italy will be expected to compete for the title.

To that end, Spalletti has introduced some fresh faces into the squad, perhaps signalling the beginning of a rebuild. Atalanta midfielder Marco Brescianini and Leicester City defender Caleb Okoli are among those receiving their first call-ups. Both players are relatively inexperienced at the international level but have shown promise in Serie A and could bring much-needed energy and dynamism to the team.

Additionally, the return of Destiny Udogie and Sandro Tonali to the squad could be pivotal. Udogie, who missed the Euros due to injury, offers a great deal of pace and technical ability down the left flank, while Tonali’s presence in midfield will add stability and composure, qualities that were sorely lacking during the Euros. The inclusion of these players suggests that Spalletti is looking to inject some fresh ideas into the team, something that will be necessary if Italy are to challenge the likes of France.

France Team News:

France have a very settled side under Didier Deschamps, who will likely show faith to many of the side that reached the semi-finals in Germany, particularly the back four which feels likely to remain unchanged.

Stalwart Adrien Rabiot is absent from the squad after not yet finding a club following the expiration of his Juventus contract, so he will likely be replaced by either Warren Zaïre-Emery or Antoine Griezmann in the starting XI.

Predicted lineup: Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Kanté, Tchouameni, Zaïre-Emery; Dembélé, Kolo Muani, Mbappé.

Italy Team News:

The Italians will be without Nico Barella and Gianluca Scamacca, both of whom are absent due to injury.

The starting XI should have a fairly new look to it, with the likes of Destiny Udogie and Mateo Retegui playing from the start.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Fagioli, Pellegrini, Udogie; Retegui, Raspadori.

The assigned UK television coverage of this game is currently TBC.

France are coming off the back of a 2-1 defeat to Spain in the semi-final of Euro 2024, where despite taking the lead early in the first half through Randal Kolo Muani, the French eventually fell to a 2-1 defeat after being pegged back by goals from Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo.

Prior to that, France played out a very forgettable 0-0 draw with Portugal in the quarter-final where they struggled to really trouble the Portuguese defence in 120 minutes. They did, though, execute a perfect penalty shootout where they netted all five penalties to emerge victorious.

That game was preceded by a 1-0 win over Belgium, where another boring, uneventful encounter was decided by a late own goal by Jan Vertonghen to send the French through.

Prior to that, France drew 1-1 with Poland in the group stages, where a Kylian Mbappé penalty was cancelled out by a spot kick of Poland's, which was preceded by a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands.

Italy's most recent outing was a 2-0 loss at the hands of Switzerland. The defeat was one of the most damning Italy defeats in the knockout stage of a major tournament in the national team's history, with Spalletti's side offering very little and being firmly outclassed by a well-drilled Swiss side.

Prior to that, Italy drew 1-1 with Croatia in what turned out to be a dramatic encounter. Italy fell behind to a Luka Modrić goal in the second half after the midfielder had missed a penalty just moments earlier. As the half wore on it looked more and more like Spalletti's men were on the verge of exiting the tournament at the group stage, but right at the death substitute Mattia Zaccagni popped up to curl in a dramatic equaliser into the far corner in the 8th minute of time added on.

That game followed a 1-0 defeat to Spain, a game where the scoreline very much flattered the Italians who were firmly the inferior team for the entire game.

Before that, Italy beat Albania 2-1 after goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nico Barella completed a first-half comeback after Albania had taken the lead inside the opening two minutes.

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