Newcastle vs. Chelsea: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

This is a game between two sides amidst very contrasting runs of form. Chelsea have only one loss in their last ten, while Newcastle have just one win in their last six. The Blues have a strong recent head-to-head record against Newcastle, winning all of the last three meetings between the two sides.

Both teams to score has occurred in all of Chelsea's last six games, and those six outings have averaged a total of 4.17 goals per game, so it feels highly likely we'll see a number of goals here.

Chelsea will, though, make a number of changes for this game, and with Eddie Howe in need of a result it feels like he's more likely to name a stronger starting XI for this one.

Chelsea's second-string XI has proven very competent in the Europa Conference League, but Newcastle are still a very strong side at St James' Park and will take a lot to topple them in normal time.

It's likely to be a very close game, and one that we fancy the Blues to shade in exactly the same way they did when the two teams met in this competition last season. Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea (Chelsea to win on penalties).

Newcastle United take on Chelsea for the second consecutive game as the two teams lock horns in the EFL Cup last 16.

• Date: 30/10/2024
• Kick-off time: 19:45
• Location: St James' Park, Newcastle

Newcastle United entered this season amidst a wave of optimism. Last season was an up-and-down endeavour for the Magpies but they were burdened by a perpetual injury crisis that riddled them for almost the entire campaign. They ultimately finished 8th, which was well short of what they managed the season prior, but given the circumstances, it was a very respectable innings. However, with just 12 points from their opening nine games, Newcastle’s start has been inconsistent, and Howe's men have been underwhelming in terms of performance levels. Their current league position may not sound alarming on the surface, but expectations have risen significantly around St James’ Park as the club aims for sustained progress under new ownership and a bolstered squad.

Newcastle’s reached the final of this competition in the 2022-23 season, which ended in the final with a 2-0 defeat to Manchester United, but it was one of the highlights of recent years, and many felt that a similar cup run this season could be just the catalyst the club needs to regain its momentum. Yet, a feeling of unease appears to be growing behind the scenes, with tension reportedly emerging between Howe and newly appointed sporting director Paul Mitchell. Howe’s position as manager isn’t directly under threat, but whispers around the club suggest that Mitchell may be biding his time, possibly looking to make a change if circumstances justify it. As such, this League Cup match carries a potential layer of pressure for Howe, who knows that a win here could quell some of the scepticism surrounding Newcastle’s direction this season.

In last season's League Cup outing, Newcastle came up against Chelsea in the quarter-final, ultimately losing 5-3 on penalties. The memory of that defeat will no doubt linger, especially since the Magpies will feel as though they should've won, with Chelsea's goal coming from a stark individual error from Kieran Trippier.

Chelsea’s recent form is, in many respects, the polar opposite of Newcastle’s. Guided by Enzo Maresca, who took the reins this summer, the Blues have made an unexpectedly strong start to the season, sitting in 5th place in the league with 17 points from their opening nine matches. Maresca’s appointment came amid some scepticism, given his limited experience at this level, but his vision and tactical astuteness have quickly put any doubts to rest, with Chelsea now looking like a cohesive and purposeful unit - a departure from last season’s inconsistency.

Chelsea’s have a clear priority in terms of their focus this season: to return to the Champions League. The fact that they have fielded a second-string team in their Europa Conference League matches illustrates their attitude towards cup competitions this season, as they’ve been willing to sacrifice depth in Europe in exchange for consistency in the league. In addition, Chelsea’s strength on the domestic front has been bolstered by the return of key players, none more influential than captain Reece James. After a prolonged injury absence, James’s comeback has provided Chelsea with an added degree of dynamism in the full-back positions, and if he can stay fit, he will likely be a huge ceiling raiser for this Chelsea team.

Meanwhile, Cole Palmer continues to justify the high expectations placed upon him following his breakout performances last season. In nine Premier League matches, Palmer has contributed an impressive seven goals and five assists, with the England international continuing to assert himself as one of the finest players in the league.

Given Maresca’s prioritisation of the league, it remains to be seen how strong a line-up Chelsea will field, but regardless of the strength of the XI, Chelsea's Conference League campaign shows they'll be more than capable of winning this game, regardless of who lines up.

This game will be televised live for all subscribed UK viewers on Sky Sports +.

Newcastle Team News:

Eddie Howe very much needs a result here and will want a reaction from his side, so he could be tempted to name a very strong XI.

Anthony Gordon, Sven Botman, Jamal Lascelles, Kieran Trippier, Callum Wilson, Matt Targett and Martin Dúbravka all remain on the sidelines.

Predicted lineup: Pope; Livramento, Schär, Burn, Kelly; Willock, Guimarães, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Barnes.

Chelsea Team News:

The Blues have the luxury of a fully fit squad coming into this game, so Enzo Maresca will likely opt to make a number of changes.

Given how good results and performances have been under the XI that has started the Conference League games, Maresca could revert to that lineup here, giving a full rest to most of those who started at the weekend.

Predicted lineup: Jörgensen; Disasi, Adarabioyo, Badiashille, Cucurella; Fernández, Veiga; Sancho, Félix, Mudryk; Nkunku.

When these two sides faced off at the weekend, Chelsea ran out deserved 2-1 winners. The Blues were quick out of the blocks, dominating the play and giving the Newcastle backline problem after problem, with Cole Palmer (who was unplayable at times) having a goal disallowed early in the first half. However, Palmer's influence could not be tamed and not long after he played an exquisite reverse through ball to Pedro Neto, who raced beyond the challenge of Fabian Schär to square the ball to Nicolas Jackson, who then slotted home for 1-0.

Newcastle responded not long after, however, as they were soon level against the run of play, as the overlapping Lewis Hall squared the ball across the six yard box to Alexander Isak, who bundled home from just a few yards out.

In the second half, a fine strike from Palmer restored Chelsea's lead to make the game 2-1, and despite missing a few good opportunities as the half wore on, the Blues saw out the game and claimed a much-needed three points.

For Chelsea, they've now won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five games, with their other results being a 4-1 win away at Panathinaikos, a 2-1 loss to Liverpool, a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest and a 4-2 win over Gent. The defeat to Liverpool is Chelsea's only loss in their last ten outings.

Newcastle, though, are in much worse shape, with the Magpies recording only one win in their last six matches. Prior to this, Newcastle have lost 0-1 to Brighton, drawn 0-0 with Everton, beaten AFC Wimbledon 1-0, drawn 1-1 with Manchester City and lost 3-1 to Fulham.

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