Bolton vs Oxford United: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

A place in the Championship is at stake, as Bolton and Oxford United face off in the League One playoff final this weekend at Wembley Stadium.

Date: 18/05/24

Kick-off time: 16:15

Venue: Wembley Stadium

Just five points separated Bolton and automatic promotion, but a third place finish meant they had to settle for a playoff place. This set up a two-legged semi-final with Barnsley, who had placed sixth. The first leg was away from home, in which they were victorious 3-1. Dion Charles scored a brace to give them a commanding lead, before this was halved with 15 minutes to go. Randell Williams’ goal in the fourth minute of stoppage time proved extremely crucial in their progression to the final. This is because they lost the second leg 3-2, but went through 5-4 on aggregate.

Their opponents Oxford United finished the season in fifth, leading to a playoff semi-final tie with Peterborough. The first leg ended 1-0 in their favour, with Elliott Moore scoring the decisive goal. The second leg was a 1-1 draw, sending United through to the final.

Recent form suggests goals should be expected, especially from Bolton. They have scored at least two goals in each of their last five games. However, they are also inconsistent in defence, keeping just one clean sheet in that time. Oxford United are not as potent in attack, with five goals in their last five, though they did score 13 combined in a three-game stretch before that. They are led by top scorer Mark Harris’ 15 goals and Cameron Brannagan’s 13. Bolton will lean on Charles, who has struck 16 times, and the recently returned Victor Adeboyejo.

Oxford United have a poor record against Bolton, picking up just one win in their last eight games against them. This victory came in a 3-1 away win in League One in 2022. The two meetings this season ended with one win for Bolton and a draw. The first fixture at the Kassam Stadium was a goalless draw, whilst the reverse was an emphatic 5-0 win for Wanderers. Nathanael Ogbeta, Josh Dacres-Cogley, George Thomason, Aaron Collins and John Sheehan were all on the scoresheet.

Bolton

Bolton manager Ian Evatt should have a fully fit squad to choose from, with no injury issues to contend with. They were given a boost during the playoffs with Victor Adeboyejo making a return after a spell on the sidelines.

Oxford United

Oxford United have no new injury concerns following the playoffs. They should have the same squad to choose from as they did in their last game.

Bolton

In their last five games, Bolton have won two, drawn two and lost one. Bolton come into the play-off final in mixed form, though their only defeat came in their last game, the second leg at home to Barnsley. It still meant they went through, as they had won the first leg 3-1, giving them a cushion. They went ahead through Dion Charles in the 23rd minute, and he doubled their advantage early in the second half. Barnsley pulled one back but Randell Williams scored a crucial goal deep into stoppage time to give them the all-important two-goal lead. The second leg ended 3-2 in Barnsley’s favour. The visitors went in front through Sam Cosgrove, though the game was turned around on the stroke of half-time with two goals in as many minutes from Aaron Collins and Eoin Toal. Strikes from Cosgrove and Adam Phillips put Barnsley back ahead, but it was enough to win the tie on aggregate.

The final game of the League One season was a thrilling 3-3 draw at Peterborough. Bolton were 2-0 up after just eight minutes after goals from Kyle Dempsey and Charles who converted from the spot. They squandered this lead as Malik Mothersille and Joel Randall levelled it in the second half. It was not level for long though, with Cameron Jerome putting the away team back in front. Mothersille netted his second to ensure the points were shared.

A 2-0 win against Port Vale preceded this, in which Aaron Collins and Jerome were on the scoresheet late in the second half. Bolton dominated in both possession and shot attempts. This followed a 2-2 draw at home to Shrewsbury. Wanderers had to come from behind twice, and they did so with goals from Jerome and Paris Maghoma.

Oxford United

In their last five games, Oxford United have won two, drawn one and lost one. Oxford have been inconsistent as of late as they enter the play-off final. However, they are unbeaten in four as they hope to earn promotion to the Championship. They booked their place in the final with a 2-1 aggregate win over Peterborough. After finishing fifth in the table, their first leg was at home, which they 1-0. Elliott Moore scored the winner eight minutes into the second half. They took this slender lead to Peterborough, and they advanced with a 1-1 draw. The hosts took the lead on the night to level the score on aggregate, but Cameron Brannagan levelled from the spot just minutes later to ensure they went through.

The last game of the League One campaign took place at Exeter City, and Oxford won 2-1. They took a 2-0 lead before half-time with goals from Mark Harris and Brannagan. Millenic Alli halved the deficit, but they were unable to complete a comeback. This followed a 1-1 draw at home to Stevenage. Sam Long put the ball into his own net to put the visitors in front, but this was cancelled out by another penalty from Brannagan to share the points.

A home game against Lincoln City was the first game of this run and it was their only defeat as they lost 1-0. The hosts dominated possession, but were unable to find the back of the net. Lincoln were able to take advantage of their chances, converting a spot kick to go ahead just after the restart. They had a man sent off late, but it made no change to the final scoreline.

After finishing third in the League One table, Bolton missed out on automatic promotion by just five points. However, we expect them to go up with victory in the play-off final against Oxford United. Their opponents will make it tough, but Bolton should edge it – Bolton 2-1 Oxford United

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Bolton vs Oxford United will be available to watch on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football.

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