Arsenal are looking to maintain their place at the top of the Champions League group phase table as they lock horns with Serie A giants Inter Milan.
- Date: 20/01/2026
- Kick-off: 8:00pm
- Location: San Siro, Milan
Inter come into the tie on an excellent domestic run, top of Serie A and in form despite setbacks in Europe. Since a narrow 1-0 defeat to Liverpool ended an 18‑match unbeaten home streak in the Champions League, Inter have responded with six wins, one draw and one loss in their last eight across all competitions, including a 1-0 victory over Udinese at the weekend courtesy of Lautaro Martinez.
Across Serie A and Europe, Inter’s metrics are those of a team that dominates territory and chances. Their current season xG profile shows an xG average of 1.93 per match (2.01 at home, 1.85 away) and xG against of 0.96 (1.01 at San Siro, 0.91 away), underlining how often they create the better opportunities while limiting opponents.
In the Champions League league phase, Inter sit on 12 points from six games, with four wins and two defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 4. That line is solid but slightly deceptive, as both losses have come against top‑tier opposition in Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, raising questions about their ceiling against the very best, and they need three points here to be certain of at least a play‑off place. Lautaro Martinez leads the European scoring with seven goals, supported by Marcus Thuram (three) and further contributions from Hakan Calhanoglu and Federico Dimarco, reflecting a spread of attacking options.
Arsenal arrive with arguably the most impressive Champions League record in this league phase. Mikel Arteta’s team have won all six of their matches so far, scoring 18 goals and conceding only one, which is the best defensive record in the competition and bettered in attack by only three other clubs. Their wins have included clean‑sheet victories over Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid and a single 3-1 success over Bayern Munich, meaning they have shut out several high‑calibre opponents across the phase.
The underlying numbers behind that run are strong rather than freakish. In the Premier League 2025-26, Arsenal’s overall xG for stands at 1.73 per match (1.85 at home, 1.61 away), while xG against is 0.89 (0.69 at home, 1.08 away), giving them one of the best non‑penalty xG differences in Europe at around +1.0 per game. Their domestic performance analysis shows an average of 2.5 goals scored per match over the last 10 games and just 0.77 conceded, for a goal‑difference average of +1.5 per match, matching preseason targets and underlining the blend of efficient attack and outstanding defensive structure.
Ultimately, Arsenal have been too convincing in this competition to be doubtful about their winning potential here, with the Gunners the clear favourites to win what could be a cagey affair.
Inter Milan 0-1 Arsenal
