Newcastle have an excellent opportunity to reach the last 16 of the Champions League knockout stage as they travel to Azerbaijan for the first leg of their playoff round tie. Qarabag will hope to make this competitive in spells, especially in Azerbaijan, but with Newcastle carrying more firepower, they'll fancy their chances of scoring multiple away goals.
Qarabag host the first leg at the Tofiq Bəhramov Republican Stadium on Wednesday is a significant occasion for the Azeri champions and a test of Newcastle’s ability to manage a tricky away environment in Europe. Newcastle finished 12th and Qarabag 22nd in their Champions League rankings, making Eddie Howe’s side clear favourites.
Qarabag’s broader Champions League numbers show a side that can score at this level but have been far too open defensively. Across 20 Champions League matches (qualifiers and league phase), they have scored in 15 and failed to find the net only five times, with 33 goals in total at an average of 1.7 per game and a healthy 18% conversion rate. However, they have conceded 41 goals in those same 20 games (2.1 per match), keeping just four clean sheets and allowing opponents to score in 16 of 20, with an xG against of 2.3 per game. Qarabag have shipped two or more goals in six consecutive Champions League outings, underlining how often their back line has struggled to cope when stepping above domestic level.
Domestically, Qarabag are far more controlled, with their total goals per match in the Azerbaijan Premier League at 2.53, with just 37% of their league games finishing over 2.5 goals (7 of 19), and an average of around 1.68 scored and 0.84 conceded per match. That combination, mid‑table for over‑2.5 and strong defensive numbers at home, shows a team that usually dominates weaker local opponents and keeps games relatively tidy. But the European split shows that once the standard rises, their defensive structure doesn’t travel, as they allow more chances, concede more goals and see many more matches go beyond two or three goals.
Newcastle bring a more balanced but clearly higher‑ceiling statistical profile. In this season’s Champions League, they have scored 31 goals in 20 games (qualifiers and league phase), averaging 1.6 per match with a strong xG for of 1.9, and have failed to score in only five fixtures. They concede 1.6 goals per game in this competition (32 in 20), with three clean sheets and goals allowed in 17 of 20, but their xG against of 1.4 is significantly better than Qarabag’s 2.3, indicating a defence that, while not watertight, is more capable of limiting chance quality.
The Magpies have had a tough campaign but are coming into this one on the back of two successive wins, both away from home, the most recent of which was 3-1 away at Aston Villa in the FA Cup. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals have occurred in all of Newcastle's last five games, and we expect this one to be pretty competitive, but the Tynesiders should claim a first leg lead.
Qarabag 1-2 Newcastle
