Brighton are hoping to arrest their spiralling form as they travel to Anfield in the FA Cup in hope of pulling off an upset.
Liverpool come in on the back of a gritty away win at Sunderland in midweek, which followed a dramatic late defeat to Manchester City in the league, while Brighton’s midweek loss at Aston Villa has compounded what has been a poor run of results.
This season, Liverpool’s underlying numbers remain those of a side regularly involved in entertaining games. They currently boast an xG rate of 1.76 per match in the league, rising to 1.98 at home, with xG against at 1.25 overall and 1.18 at Anfield, underlining both their attacking volume and the fact that they do give opponents opportunities. The Reds have averaged a total of 3.24 goals per match, with almost 38% of wins coming to nil but enough games where they concede to keep BTTS angles alive.
In terms of BTTS, it has occurred in 50% of their last ten games in all competitions, while seven of their last ten have seen over 2.5 goals scored. They've lost only two of their last ten outings, with five ending in wins. On home soil, they've lost only one of their last nine, again recording five wins in that period.
Brighton come into the game amidst a sombre run of results, with the mood around the Amex at arguably its lowest point since the club was promoted to the Premier League. They have only two wins from their last 14 games, one of which was in this competition, and are winless in their last five. Fabian Hurzeler's side have lost three of their last four games and now find themselves sliding towards the Premier League relegation battle.
Having been one of the league's more high-event sides earlier in the campaign, Brighton's blockbuster factor has diminished notably, with their games becoming more dull as results have deteriorated. Only four of their last ten games have produced over 2.5 goals, though both teams have scored in seven of their last ten fixtures, arguably highlighting the consistency of competitiveness in their clashes.
It's hard to make a convincing argument in favour of Brighton avoiding defeat at Anfield given their form, with the Reds unlikely to take this game likely given the narrative around manager Arne Slot at the minute. The Seagulls usually always compete, and will likely do so here, but expect Liverpool to come out of the blocks flying on Saturday night.
Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
