AC Milan vs Cagliari: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Serie A football returns once again this weekend as we approach the final stages of the season. AC Milan hosts a Cagliari side who are still not mathematically safe entering these final few games of the season.

Location: San Siro

Date: 11/05/2024

Kick-Off: 7:45 PM

AC Milan will be hoping to secure a top-two finish with only three games remaining for the Serie A season for the Rossoneri. The home side are currently second in the league, five points clear of their nearest rivals Juventus. Second place is the highest that AC Milan can finish this season, having conceded the Scudetto in the most recent derby game against Inter Milan.

With the hosts having a five-point advantage over Juventus, they would realistically only need two wins from three games or a potential Juventus slip-up to solidify their place. Milan is mathematically when it comes to the UEFA Champions League for next season, as they have an 11-point gap over Roma, respective of whether Atalanta wins their games in hand.

The visitors to the San Siro, Cagliari are in 15th place with three games to go. Although the position could be seen as one of comfortability, it is far from certain that they will be a Serie A club next season.

Cagliari have 33 points from 35 games played this season, four points clear of 18th-placed Udinese. If Udinese were to beat Napoli in their game in hand or even obtain a draw, Cagliari would not be mathematically safe with three games to go. The visitors would have an inferior goal difference to Udinese if a situation were to occur where Udinese could catch Cagliari.

Cagliari does have favourable fixtures against Fiorentina and Sassuolo away from their game against AC Milan at the San Siro. Cagliari, Frosinone and Empoli will be hoping Napoli beat Udinese to then avoid an uncomfortable last three games potentially in the Serie A season for those teams involved in the relegation battle.

In the recent league meeting between the two teams, Milan were 3-1 winners over Cagliari. Cagliari took the lead in the first half through Zito Luvumbo until goals from Noah Okafor and Fikayo Tomori stole the lead away from Cagliari before half-time. Ruben Loftus-Cheek scored the third and final goal for Milan on the hour mark.

AC Milan Team News

Mike Maignan and Ruben Loftus-Cheek will both be unavailable through injury problems. Matteo Gabbia is the only suspension risk for the home side.

Cagliari Team News

Jakub Jankto and Nicolas Viola are both ruled out through injury problems. Cagliari have three suspension risks to the likes of Alberto Dossena, Matteo Prati and Leoardo Pavoletti.

Judging by the recent history between the two teams in competitive fixtures, AC Milan will be the favourites heading into their clash against a Cagliari side who will be looking over their shoulder as we approach the final weeks of the season.

AC Milan are unbeaten in their last five competitive games against Cagliari and coincidentally they are unbeaten in their last five league games also. The most recent meeting between the two sides took place in the Coppa Italia this season. Milan were 4-1 winners back in January thanks to goals from Chaka Troare, Rafael Leao and a brace from Luka Jovic.

On average this fixture produces 2.68 goals per game in which AC Milan have scored 12 goals in their last four games against Cagliari, having only conceded three goals against their opponents in that time.

In the last ten meetings between the two teams, there has only been one dismissal in any of the games played between the two sides. Alexis Saelemaskers was dismissed for a second bookable offence in the 2-0 win for Milan away at Cagliari in 2021. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was on hand to score a brace for the Rossoneri in that game.

In the last 20 meetings between the two teams, Milan have come away with 15 victories, having drawn four and losing the remaining fixture. Interestingly, Cagliari have not beaten AC Milan since 2017 when the away side who were the hosts for that game, beat Milan 2-1. Cagliari left it until the 93rd minute when Fabio Pisacane scored a late winner for the home side that day.

AC Milan have an impressive home record which could be used to their advantage at the weekend. Milan have played 17 games at San Siro this season, having won 11, drawing three times and losing the remaining three games. Milan has won two out of their last five home league games and only once in their last five league games in general.

Milan has averaged 2.12 points per game at home this season, whilst having 2.03 points overall this season. Milan has kept clean sheets in 47% of their games at home this season as well as only losing 18% of their games in front of their home crowd this season.

Cagliari’s away form is less than desirable in giving them any type of confidence in gaining a result. The away side has won once in 17 league games this season, although that did occur in their most recent five league games.

The away side last tasted victory in a 2-1 win over Atalanta at home thanks to goals from Tommaso Augelio and Nicolas Viola. Cagliari’s only away win this season came against fellow strugglers Empoli, where a 69th-minute goal from Jakub Jankto was enough for the win.

Cagliari have only won once in their last five away games and only once in their last five league games in general. The visitors have only averaged 0.47 points per game this season, whilst keeping only a 12% clean sheet average per game.

One of the main problems for the away side this season has been their conversion in front of goal, particularly away from home. Cagliari have failed to score in 47% of their games away from home this season.

AC Milan's home form gives them the advantage over Cagliari for this game, hence why we are predicting a 2-0 win for the home side. AC Milan 2-0 Cagliari.

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The game will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 3.

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