Fiorentina vs Napoli: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Fiorentina host Napoli in a huge game that could have huge implications for who obtains that last European spot in Serie A.

Date: 17/05/2024

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi

Kick-Off: 7:45 PM

Fiorentina are currently the favourites to secure the last European place and a spot in next season’s UEFA Europa Conference League. The home side are currently ninth, one point behind Napoli. Fiorentina play host to Monza before they play Napoli and will move ahead of their opponents with a win. If Fiorentina beat Monza and Napoli, they could move four points clear of their visitors.

There is a unique scenario in Italy, where nine teams could potentially be in Europe next season. Italy was awarded the extra European place via the coefficient ranking, although if Fiorentina wins the UEFA Conference League, they will be awarded a place in the UEFA Europa League and the Conference League place will be awarded to the ninth best team.

Napoli are eighth as it stands but could be in a position where they will be competing for ninth to secure any place in Europe next season. Napoli only have two games left after recording 51 points from 36 games.

Fiorentina were the winners of the most recent league meeting between the two sides after they recorded a 3-1 away at Napoli.

Riccardo Sottil is unavailable for Fiorentina. Nikola Milenkovic is a suspension risk for the home side.

Piotr Zielinski, Pierluigi Gollini and Mario Rui will all be unavailable for Napoli. Pasquale Mazzocchi, Stanislav Lobotka and Victor Osimhen are all suspension risks.

The recent history between the two teams suggests that both Fiorentina and Napoli will be evenly matched heading into this vital game for European qualification. In the last five meetings between the two sides, both Fiorentina and Napoli have shared two wins each – one of the wins for Napoli was in a recent Italian Super Cup game.

This fixture provides an average of 2.67 goals scored between the two teams. In the last 20 meetings between the two sides, Napoli has the superior record between the two sides with 15 victories to Fiorentina’s five. The five remaining games have ended honours even between the two sides.

Interestingly, in the last four meetings between the two sides, there have been two occasions where the winning side has scored three goals or more. The last time either side recorded a league double over one another was in 2021. Napoli was the team who achieved the league double with an 8-0 League aggregate win over Fiorentina.

The fixture at the Stadio Artemio Franchi last season ended in a stalemate between the two teams. The last time Napoli recorded a victory over Napoli away from was in 2021. Napoli were 2-1 winners that day thanks to goals from Hirving Lozano and Amir Rrahmani.

The hosts will be looking to end an unwanted record of five games now, where they have failed to beat Napoli at home. Fiorentina last beat Napoli at home in 2018 where three goals from Giovanni Simeone secured the victory for the home side. Simeone ended up signing for Napoli in recent years.

In the last ten competitive meetings between the two teams, there have been three dismissals. Interestingly, all three dismissals have taken place in one game in 2022. Fiorentina were 5-2 winners that in the Coppa Italia with Napoli being reduced to nine men and Fiorentina ten men.

In one of Fiorentina’s more recent home games, they secured a 3-2 first-leg advantage over Club Brugge who were reduced to ten men. M’Bala Nzola secured a dramatic victory for the home side in the 91st in which they used that as momentum to secure safe passage in the second leg to reach the UEFA Conference League.

Fiorentina’s home form this season has been above average as they face Napoli at home. Fiorentina have played 17 games this season – once the fixture against Napoli takes place it will be 18 because of Fiorentina playing Monza beforehand.

From their 17 games played so far this season, Fiorentina have won nine, drawn four and lost the remaining four games. The home side has averaged 1.82 points per game this season, whilst achieving a 53%-win rate this season.

The home side have won twice in their last five home games as of writing, whilst winning two games in five in general. It’s worth mentioning that Fiorentina have been consistent when scoring at home this season.

The home side have scored 1.94 goals per game this season at home, whilst conceding 1.12 goals per game. Fiorentina have failed to score in 18% of their home games this season.

Napoli have played 18 games away from home this season and their away record is only slightly marginally better than their home form. Napoli have won seven, drawn six and lost the remaining five of their fixtures away from home this season.

Napoli have recorded a 1.5 points per game average this season away from home and have won 39% of their away fixtures in general. In their away fixtures both Napoli and their respective opponents have provided a 2.67 goals average. Their attacking output this season has seen them score 1.61 goals per game away from home.

The issue for Napoli has been defensively. Despite only conceding 1.06 goals per game away from home, they’ve only kept a 22% clean sheet percentage. Napoli have won two out of their last five away games, with their most recent win being a 4-2 victory away at Monza.

In their most recent league fixture, Napoli were beaten 2-0 by fourth-placed Bologna.

With what's at stake for this game, we are predicting a close game between the two sides. Fiorentina though we reckon will just edge out their opponents.

Fiorentina 2-1 Napoli

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The game will not be broadcast in the UK.

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