Napoli vs Bologna: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Serie A takes centre stage at the weekend as the battle for European qualification takes place between the sides involved. Bologna travel to Naples in the hope of potentially securing their route into the UEFA Champions League next season.

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Date: 11/05/2024

Kick – Off: 17: 00 PM

Bologna faces the difficult task of travelling to last season’s champions in the hope they could potentially secure the win needed to progress them into next season’s UEFA Champions League. Thiago Motta has led a brilliant campaign, which sees the away side 5th after 35 games played.

The visitors are four points clear of their nearest competitors A.S Roma with both having three games left. Atalanta are six points behind Bologna, however as of writing they will have two games in hand over Bologna. One of the games in hand Atalanta is against bottom-of-the-league Salernitana, so if they record their expected win, they will move four points behind with a game in hand. Atalanta have yet to face Fiorentina at home this season.

Italy was awarded the extra place in the Champions League next season, although for Bologna they would want the place secured in the top four, rather than having to rely on the likes of A.S Roma and Atalanta to falter in their remaining cup competitions. Both Atalanta and A.S Roma are still competing in this season’s UEFA Europa League.

Bologna faces a Napoli side, who can still yet recover their campaign this season after a disappointing showing from last season’s champions. Napoli are currently ninth as of writing, having played a game less than Bologna. The hosts face Udinese before this game at the weekend.

A win over Udinese and Bologna respectively would move Napoli potentially ahead of Lazio in seventh place. If Napoli were to finish seventh, they would qualify for next season’s Europa Conference League. A potential seventh-placed finish would also require dropping points in their three remaining games. The last meeting between the two sides finished honours even with neither side scoring a goal at the Renato Dall’Ara.

Napoli Team News

Piotr Zielinski and Pierluigi Gollini are both ruled out with injuries. Victor Osimhen, Pasquale Mazzochi and Stanislav Lobotka are all suspension risks.

Bologna Team News

Lewis Ferguson is ruled out with a long-term injury. Sam Buekema served a suspension in his last game, and he could be available for selection.

The recent history between the two teams suggests that last season’s champions will be the favourites heading into this game. Napoli have won three out of their last five games against Bologna with the two remaining games ending in a draw. In the last 20 meetings between the two sides, Napoli has a far greater advantage over their opponents historically. The home side have won 13 of their last 20 encounters between the two sides, with Bologna only winning three and drawing the remaining four games.

Interestingly, Bologna hasn’t recorded a victory over Napoli in their last eight games in all competitions. Bologna’s last victory away at Napoli was in 2019. Fernando Llorente opened the scoring for Napoli late in the first half, however, goals from Andreas Skov Olsen and Nicola Sansone secured a brilliant comeback win for the visitors.

There have been no dismissals in any of the last ten meetings between the two sides. The last time there was a meeting between the two sets of teams where they were ill-disciplined was in 2017. Both sides saw their respective starting elevens reduced to ten men in an emphatic 7-1 win for Napoli away at Bologna.

Depending on their result against Udinese, Napoli will come into his game with only one win in their last five Serie A games. Napoli have averaged 1.47 points per game this season and they would need to improve that rate for the European chances to become reality.

Napoli have produced average home form this season at this stage. Napoli have played 17 games at home this season, winning six, drawing six and losing the five remaining games. The former champions have averaged 1.41 points per game this season in comparison to 1.53 points per game obtained away from home.

The home side have only won once in their last five home games in the league also, losing once and drawing the remaining three games. The issue for Napoli this season has been defensively according to the statistics.

Since the departure of Kim Min Jae last summer to Bayern Munich last summer, the home side has struggled to fill the void left by the departing South Korean international. Napoli have conceded 1.47 goals per game at home this season and have recorded a below-average rate of 12% when it comes to keeping clean sheets.

Napoli’s last home win was a 2-1 win over Juventus in April in which Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Giacomo Raspadori scored for Napoli during that game. The Georgian winger Kvaratskhelia has 16 goal contributions for Napoli in the Serie A this season and averages 0.3 goals per game.

Interestingly, Bologna’s overall away form matches up with Napoli’s home form – which doesn’t bode well for the home side in this fixture. Bologna have played 17 games away from home this season, winning five, drawing nine and losing only three times. The number of draws from Bologna brings their overall points per average down to 1.41, identical to Napoli’s home form.

Bologna has only won 29% of their away games his season, although they’ve only lost 18% of those games as well. The draws have played a huge role in Thiago Motta’s team this season.

Bologna enters this game having been unbeaten in their last five league games and they’ve also not lost in their last five away games. Bologna have won three out of their last five away games, drawing twice in the process.

In their previous away game, they were held to a 0-0 draw away from home at Torino. Their most recent away win in the league was the impressive 3-1 victory over nearest challengers A.S. Roma.

Joshua Zirkee scored for Bologna in that all-important win for the away side. The Dutch forward has 15 goal contributions in 31 match starts for the fourth-placed team this season.

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The game will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 3

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