Italy vs. France: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

This game has all the makings of a tight encounter. With Italy unbeaten in their last five games, winning four of those, it's hard to imagine them falling to a defeat on home soil to an Mbappé-less French side.

Given Italy know they need a draw, they're unlikely to go hell for leather in search of a win so that could make things more reserved.

Both sides have found the back of the net in four of Italy's last five games and three of France's last five outings, so expect both teams to get on the scoresheet in what should be a tight contest. Italy 1-1 France.

Italy are looking to cap off a fine 2024 Nations League group stage this weekend as they take on France.

Italy's post-Euro 2024 showings have been somewhat resurgent, with the Azzuri having rebounded from a desperately disappointing Euros campaign in the summer in style. Italy come into this game needing just a draw to secure top spot in the group and progress to the Nations League finals, something few would have expected given the difficulty of their group.

No secret was made of the quality (or lack thereof) of Italy's Euros campaign in the summer, and there were major questions being asked of manager Luciano Spalletti after their meek exit at the hands of Switzerland at the round of 16 phase in Germany, but the Italian FA have kept faith in the 2022-23 Serie A winner and as of now, that looks to be a smart decision.

Spalletti entered the job with his personal stocks very high given it was only shortly after he guided Napoli to the Serie A title so seeing the Italians deliver such a passive, spiritless showing was a shock to many. However, Spalletti had only been in the job for ten months when Euro 2024 came around so it was only fair that judgement should have been reserved.

Italy now look like a team reborn and their trajectory seems to have shifted quite abruptly, with the mood around the national team very high.

Italy have experienced a drop off in the level of talent at their disposal following their Euro 2020 victory but in light of a swathe off success in recent youth international tournaments, it looks like their fortunes are slowly changing in that regard.

This could, then, be the start of Italy's ascent back to the top of international football as they look to complete a double against the French.

France are currently 2nd in UEFA Nations League A, Group 2 with ten points from five games. Les Bleus are in a similar position to the Italians, where they're trying to regroup following an unsuccessful (but notably more successful than Italy's) Euros campaign ahead of their 2026 World Cup charge.

France, despite reaching the semi-finals, looked very stale in an attacking sense in Germany and were heavily criticised for their showings, most of which were extremely dull. Since that tournament, France have done little to reinstall confidence in their prospects as World Cup contenders having delivered a sequence of very up-and-down performances in this competition.

Manager Didier Deschamps has been in charge of the national team for 12 years now, and despite reaching two World Cup finals and a Euros final in that timeframe, his tenure has started to come under intense scrutiny, with the former Marseille manager accused of not getting the best out of France's outstanding attacking talent.

It's hard to really question Deschamps given his record, but it's undeniable that France have not been playing to their potential for the best part of a year now. Should France fail to impress in the USA, Canada & Mexico in 2026, expect that Deschamps' exit will follow that tournament.

France need to win this game by two goals if they are to top the group and qualify for the finals of the Nations League, but given both teams' recent performances it's quite hard to favour them here, despite their immense squad depth.

Italy Team News:

Moise Kean is enjoying a fine run of club form and could come in for striker Mateo Retegui for this one.

Manuel Locatelli could also come in for Samuele Ricci in midfield, but there aren't likely to be many changed to the XI that started the game against Belgium on Thursday night.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Barella; Kean.

France Team News:

The French are still without Kylian Mbappé, who seems to have bilaterally agreed his exclusion from this squad with Didier Deschamps, for reasons unknown.

Kingsley Coman and Marcus Thuram could come into the forward line as Les Blues look to spark some attacking inspiration.

Predicted lineup: Maignan; Koundé, Konaté, Saliba, Hernández; Kanté, Rabiot; Olise, Zaïre-Emery, Barcola; Thuram.

Italy enter this game in very good shape having won four and drawn one of their last five games. Most recently, the Azzuri claimed a 1-0 win away in Belgium where Sandro Tonali scored his first goal for the senior national team.

Prior to that, goals from Mateo Retegui, Giovanni Di Lorenzo (X2) and Davide Frattesi secured a 4-1 win over Israel, a result that followed a 2-2 draw with Belgium that Italy will feel should have been much more given they were reduced to ten men while leading 2-0, only to be forced to settle for a draw.

Those results were preceded by a 2-1 win over Israel and a 3-1 win away in France.

France come into this one with three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five games. Thursday night saw them held to a poor 0-0 draw at home to Israel in front of a record-low crowd, owing to protesting fans, which followed a 2-1 win away in Belgium courtesy of a Randal Kolo Muani Brace.

Before that, France beat Israel 4-1 through Edouardo Camavinga, Christopher Nkunku, Mattéo Guendouzi and Bradley Barcola, which came after a 2-0 win over Belgium, thanks to goals from Kolo Muani and Ousmane Dembélé, and a 1-3 loss to Italy.

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