Premier League Golden Boot Odds

The 2023/24 Premier League season will soon be upon us, with most top-flight sides returning for pre-season in approximately three weeks' time. Last campaign, Erling Haaland swept away the Golden Boot competition with 36 goals in 35 matches, six goals clear of Harry Kane. Will the Norwegian claim the award for the second season running?

Moving to the Premier League can often be a difficult task in terms of adapting and there is a catalogue of high-profile players that were unable to live up to their expectations. Haaland, however, made the Premier League look easy from his first game, scoring two as Man City defeated West Ham.

The Norwegian was already arguably the best number nine in world football before signing for City, who as of right now are the best team in Europe. The combination and quality meant that Haaland could simply not fail. The tall yet extremely quick striker ended the season with 36 goals in 33 starts, whilst also registering eight assists.

He is hungry, determined and has the most elite mentality in the league which makes many confident in saying Haaland will continue his insane goal-scoring for years to come. Last season, Haaland broke a long list of Premier League records, including: The most goals in a Premier League season, first player to score 20 goals before January and the fastest player to score ten Premier League goals. 5/4 is a fair price and it would take a dramatic shift or a long-term injury for Haaland to not have the most goals again next season.

Harry Kane is undeniably one of the best centre-forwards the Premier League has ever seen. The Spurs captain only trails Alan Shearer’s record for the most goals in Premier League history by 47, so it is still mind-blowing for him to be second favourite with odds of 6/1 to be top goalscorer next campaign.

England's all-time top scorer and captain has shown his loyalty to Spurs, especially over the last few seasons with European giants all interested in acquiring his services. This summer feels as though it is Kane’s last chance to leave Spurs and like every transfer window, the Kane rumours enhance.

Kane should stay in the Premier League to beat the already-mentioned record, yet Manchester United seem to be the only team with any concrete interest. The number ten scored 30 goals in a season where Spurs didn’t achieve European football for the first time since 2005, which just highlights how incredible Kane is. If he stays at Spurs it is hard to see him winning the Golden Boot, but a move away could increase his chances.

Last campaign, Liverpool finished outside of the UEFA Champions League spot for the first time since the 2015/16 Premier League season. Jurgen Klopp will demand progress after that disappointing finish but he will be encouraged by what he saw towards the end of the season and in particular the seven-game win streak.

Although Liverpool endured a tough season, their main man Salah continued to perform to an extremely high level. The Egyptian scored 19 goals last campaign, which is his joint worse tally since joining the club in 2017. The clinical left-footed forward finished 4th place in the race for the Golden Boot last season, but based on early transfer market activity it looks like Liverpool plan to reinforce the team which in turn will help Salah improve his goal tally. Salah takes penalties for Anfield club which boosts his chances of scoring more goals, and he will be challenging for his fourth golden boot but it is difficult to predict how Liverpool will play next season.

Darwin Nunez joined Liverpool last summer from Benfica for a fee of £64M and after a goal on his Community Shield and Premier League debut, fans expected him to make an instant impact.

However, his momentum was cut short the following league game after he received a straight red card for violent conduct. His aggressive and almost impulsive actions do clearly have their drawbacks but it is also an attribute which makes him difficult to play against.

Additionally, the Uruguayan suffered numerous small injuries which also hindered his opportunity to cement a guaranteed place into the starting XI. Also, despite being signed as a centre forward, Nunez was often deployed as a left winger where he accumulated nine Premier League goals in 1702 minutes (almost half the minutes Harry Kane played).

Roberto Firmino’s departure this summer means that the striker role will be shared between Nunez and Diogo Jota, with Luis Diaz and Salah occupying the wide areas. Nunez is known for his poor finishing in front of goal but he has the elite mindset to continue getting into goal-scoring positions.

With Liverpool competing in the Europa League next season, rotation is guaranteed and that may benefit the 23-year-old. At Benfica he endured a tough first season, scoring just six league goals, however, he exploded in his second season with 26 goals in 28 league games. A repeat in this pattern would put him among the Golden Boot contenders next season but with his starting place not guaranteed, it is unlikely.

Marcus Rashford and Manchester United enjoyed a much improved season last time out after a previously troubled period, with new boss Erik ten Hag successfully getting the best out of his star man.

The explosive forward had his best goal-scoring tally in a single season to date, scoring 17 goals in the Premier League, making him the sixth-highest goalscorer in the league. Rashford featured as a winger and a number nine last season, due to United’s lack of centre-forward options. The 25-year-old plays his best football when positioned in an inverted left role which is where he will play next season if the manager’s wishes of a new CF are granted.

Similarly to Jesus, Rashford won’t take penalties when Bruno Fernandes is on the pitch which means most, if not all, of his goals will have to come from open play.

Arsenal will hope to go one step further next campaign after just falling short in the race for the 2022/23 Premier League title. Ex-Manchester City forward, Gabriel Jesus, played an important role as Arsenal’s number nine, despite being unavailable for 15 games due to a knee injury.

The Brazilian scored eleven goals in the most recent season, however, he did underperform his XG (expected goals) which was at 16. This indicates that if it wasn’t for poor finishing, the 26-year-old would find the back of the net more often. Furthermore, Jesus isn’t on penalties like some other contenders which significantly decreases his chances of winning the Golden Boot, therefore he will need to have a stellar campaign to compete on this front.

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