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Premier League Relegation Predictions


Header logoPremier League

Team logoEverton
Team logoLeicester
Team logoLeeds
Last updated 18/06/2024

Premier League Relegation Predictions

Only a handful of games are left in the 2022/23 Premier League season and the relegation battle is heating up, with five teams desperately looking to retain their top-flight status. Using FiveThirtyEight's Premier League prediction table based on fixtures and league standings, this article will look at the chances of the bottom five team’s being relegated.

Predicted 20th place – Southampton, 99%

Unfortunately for the Saints, it seems that their relegation to the Championship is all but guaranteed and that is mirrored in the prediction table, who has them at a 99% chance of being relegated. They are currently six points off 19th and eight points away from 17th, with only three games remaining.

Southampton would have to win all three of their remaining games In order to stay up, but they have to rely on almost every result going their way also. However, worryingly for the Saints, they haven’t won a game since the start of March and they haven’t won in any of their last ten games. Boss Ruben Selles has repeatedly mentioned that his team will continue to fight, but there is no evidence to suggest they will turn their performances around.

Fulham is their next opponent, and then they face Brighton, before hosting Liverpool on the final day. It would take an incredible great escape to survive from this point, yet it seems that after their 4-3 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday, the fans and even the players recognise the inevitable outcome of life in the Championship.

Predicted 19th place – Leeds United, 72%

19th place Leeds United are two points off 17th place and they are hoping that a Sam Allardyce masterclass can inspire a late survival charge. According to the table, they are estimated to pick up a combined three points from the remaining three games, which results in a 72% chance of relegation.

Leeds’s first game with the new man in charge was the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City last week at the Etihad. At face value, that seems like a respectable scoreline, yet poor finishing from the home side and a penalty miss prevented the scoreline from increasing. The goal that Leeds did score was almost out of nothing, yet it was a tidy finish from Rodrigo.

When in a relegation scrap, momentum is key. However, Leeds are without a win in their last six matches. Their run in isn’t exactly kind either, as they have to face Newcastle United, West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur. The West Ham fixture seems to be the only game where three points is possible given their Premier League safety and the fact they may rotate due to their European commitments. It is not impossible, but Leeds will have to cause three upsets in order to stay up.

Predicted 18th place - Leicester City, 65%

The Foxes have completely fallen apart this season, almost from out of nowhere. They have been in and around the European places for the last four seasons, including an 8th-place finish last year. Fast forward almost a year and Leicester sit in 18th place with a 65% chance of being relegated.

Leicester can score goals, unlike some of the teams that are currently around them and they have plenty of quality in their side. Their most recent game away to Fulham ended 5-3 to the hosts which highlights their main problem, a lack of defensive security. The Appointment of Dean Smith in April hasn’t been successful and drawing against Everton and Leeds will have significantly impacted their chance of survival.

The remaining three games for Leicester will see them play Liverpool, Newcastle, and West Ham, which are all extremely tough fixtures. The table predicts Leicester to achieve a combined three points from these games yet I can only see them picking up points against the Hammers. Leicester will desperately need their star players such as James Maddison and Harvey Barnes to step up, yet it is difficult for their contributions to make a difference when they concede an average of 1.83 each game.

Predicted 17th place – Nottingham Forest, 37%

Nottingham Forest are currently in 16th place in the official Premier League table, yet the predictions places them in 17th after the final game of the season. Two wins in their last three games has skyrocketed Forest up the table and significantly increased their chance of survival. A lot of people would have had Steve Cooper’s side down for relegation even a few weeks ago, yet their chance of relegation is now 37%.

Forest seems to have found their shooting boots since their 3-2 loss to Liverpool four games ago, and I believe their performance in this game gave them a much-needed confidence boost. Thanks to goals from Morgan Gibbs-White, Danilo and a brace from Taiwo Awoniyi, Forest scored four past Southampton on Monday in a 4-3 victory.

The Reds do have three tricky fixtures ahead of them however and they are still right in the middle of the relegation battle. Three points should secure their safety but they face Chelsea, Arsenal, and Crystal Palace in the remaining matches. Their survival may come down to their trip to Selhurst Park on the final day of the season and they will have to rely on the teams below them to drop points.

Predicted 16th Place – Everton, 27%

If Everton are to stay up this campaign, then the return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the appointment of Sean Dyche and their strong recent away form will be seen as the three key reasons. The Toffees have picked up five points In their last four games (since Calvert-Lewin’s return) and they have all been away from home. According to the table, Everton have a 27% chance of relegation which is mainly down to their recent form and upcoming fixtures.

Unlike the other relegation contenders, Everton actually have slightly easier fixtures other than next weeks game against Manchester City, yet we have seen Sean Dyche’s side frustrate high-flying teams at home this season, such as Arsenal for example. They then face two midtable sides in the form of Wolves and Bournemouth.

Given their recent 5-1 shock demolition of Brighton earlier this week, Everton will be confident that they can pick up points in their final few games. The prediction displays that Everton will pick up three points across the remaining matches and with the fans on their side, it is difficult to disagree that they will be playing Premier League football next term.