Burnley vs. Leeds United: Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips

The likelihood here is that this game will be a tight encounter. Burnley have drawn three of their last five in the league, while Leeds have drawn two of their last four. Burnley have been especially prone to drawing games at Turf Moor, having been held to draws in four of their last five league games on home soil.

Under 2.5 goals has occurred in four of Burnley's last five games at home and four of Leeds' last five on the road, so it seems logical to expect that to continue here. Burnley 1-1 Leeds.

A huge clash in the automatic promotion race takes place in the Championship on Monday night as Leeds United take on Burnley.

• Date: 27/01/2025
• Kick-off time: 20:00
• Location: Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley are currently 3rd in the Championship table with 56 points from 28 games. The Clarets are having a strong campaign in England's second tier as they chase automatic promotion back to the Premier League following last season's relegation.

Under Scott Parker, Burnley are trending as one of the strongest defences this league - and English football in general - has ever seen. The Clarets have conceded just 9 goals in 28 games, a quite remarkable figure. Burnley come into this game having kept six clean sheets in a row, and while they've fallen to eight 0-0 draws this season, their incredible defensive record makes them one of the heavy favourites for promotion.

With 36 goals scored, they've not been quite as prolific as they'd have liked, and the team has actually come under notable scrutiny this season for the quality of their attacking play, but when your defence is that watertight, you essentially only need one goal to win a game most of the time.

Burnley already have a win over Leeds this season so they're going for a league double here, and given they're slightly behind the two other automatic promotion favourites in the league standings, a win would be huge for their season.

Leeds United are currently top of the Championship table with 59 points from 28 games. The Peacocks are having a strong campaign and come into this game as most people's favourites for automatic promotion. Despite their exploits, there is still a feeling amongst those who watch the team on a regular basis that this side is smaller than the sum of its parts. Leeds likely have the strongest squad in the division, and if you were going to project the fortunes of the three automatic promotion favourites onto a hypothetical Premier League campaign in 2025-26, you'd likely argue that Leeds have more players who will scale up to the Premier League than Burnley or Sheffield United.

However, under Daniel Farke, the team's play is often bland and one-dimensional, and while it's effective enough to have them in the mix for automatic promotion, you can't help but feel like the maximum value is not being extracted from this group.

Leeds also have a big issue with their goalkeeper situation. Ilan Meslier has largely been a good servant to the club, but his form has fallen off a cliff this season, and while he retains the backing of manager Farke, the Frenchman has cost his team a number of big points this season and there is a worry that he could yet impact the season further.

Regardless, the team is top of the league, so such a negative spin is not necessary. Leeds are largely impressive when they play against the league's better teams, as they were last season, but the defeat against Burnley earlier in the season bucked that trend. Three points here would put a fairly decent cushion between them and the Clarets, so they'll be desperate to get it.

This game will be televised live to all subscribed UK viewers on Sky Sports Main Event.

Burnley Team News:

Burnley have only a minor injury list, with Enock Agyei, Aaron Ramsey and Jordan Beyer all out injured.

After a thumping win in midweek, Burnley will likely name the same starting XI for this one.

Predicted lineup: Trafford; Roberts, Egan-Riley, Esteve, Pires; Cullen, Laurent; Anthony, Brownhill, Foster; Flemming.

Leeds United Team News:

Leeds will once again be without Pascal Struijk, which means Ethan Ampadu will have to deputise at centre-back alongside Joe Rodon.

Also missing is Patrick Bamford, who is reportedly looking for a move away from the club, but the Peacocks otherwise have a full squad to choose from.

Predicted lineup: Meslier; Bogle, Rodon, Ampadu, Firpo; Rothwell, Tanaka; James, Aaronson, Soloman; Piroe.

Burnley:

Burnley come into this game with three wins and two draws from their last five games. Most recently, the Clarets thumped a sorry Plymouth Argyle side 5-0 away from home, with braces from Ziam Flemming and Josh Laurent, alongside a Josh Cullen goal, all coming in the first half.

Before that, Burnley drew 0-0 with Sunderland but were very lucky to do so, as goalkeeper James Trafford saved two late penalties from the Black Cats.

That result followed a 3-1 win in extra-time over Reading in the FA Cup, a narrow 1-0 win over Balckburn Rovers and a 0-0 draw with Stoke City.

Leeds:

Leeds' form is good, as they enter this game with three wins and two draws from their last five matches. Their midweek fixture saw them cruise to a comfortable 2-0 win over Norwich thanks to goals from Manor Solomon and Dan James, which was preceded by a 3-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday, with the goals coming from Soloman, Largie Ramazani and Ao Tanaka.

Those results were preceded by a 1-0 win over Harrogate Town in the FA Cup, courtesy of a Ramazani goal, a 3-3 draw with Hull City - where Tanaka, James and Joël Piroe scored the goals - and a 1-1 draw with Blackburn Rovers, where Leeds conceded in injury time after a late Pascal Struijk penalty had put them ahead.

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