Arsenal’s meeting with Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday brings together the league leaders with one of the division’s more unpredictable sides.
- Date: 27/12/2025
- Kick-off: 3:00pm
- Location: Emirates Stadium, North London
Arsenal sit 1st with 12 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 17 games, scoring 31 and conceding 10 for a goal difference of +21 and 39 points. Brighton arrive in 9th with 6 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses, 25 goals scored and 23 conceded with a goal difference of +2 and 24 points.
Across the season, Arsenal average 1.82 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per league match, totalling an average of 2.41 total goals per game. They have kept 9 clean sheets in 17 and failed to score only once, underpinning a run that includes a recent hard‑fought 1–0 win over Everton. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of their league fixtures, with both teams scoring in 41%, reflecting a side whose matches are not wild but where they usually edge the key moments.
Brighton’s league games are naturally more open: they average 1.47 scored and 1.35 conceded per match, with a total goals figure of 2.82. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of their Premier League fixtures, and BTTS in 65%, rising to 67% over 2.5 and 78% BTTS at home but a still significant 38% over 2.5 and 50% BTTS away. December has been patchy for Brighton in terms of results, but their games have continued to feature regular goals at both ends.
Arsenal’s home form is excellent, with 7 wins and 1 draw from 8 at the Emirates, with 20 goals scored and only 3 conceded (2.50 for and 0.38 against per home match). At home, over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of league games and BTTS in 38%, supported by a clean‑sheet rate of 63% and a 100% record of scoring in every home fixture. They also tend to score in both halves at the Emirates, doing so in 63% of their home league matches, which adds to the pressure on visitors who fall behind.
Brighton’s away profile is more mixed but still points to danger in transition. They have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats on the road, scoring 9 and conceding 12 (1.13 for and 1.50 against per away game). Only 38% of their away league matches have seen over 2.5 goals and 50% BTTS, but across all venues Brighton’s overall BTTS rate of 65% shows how often they trade chances. Their xG numbers – 1.45 for and 1.42 against away – also suggest reasonably even contests in terms of chances created, even if the results have been inconsistent.
The data points towards a win for the Gunners, and given how dominant they are on home soil and how inconsistent the Seagulls are on the road, it could be a comfortable victory for the North London side.
Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
