West Ham’s home game against Nottingham Forest is a classic Premier League relegation six-pointer between two sides under pressure to turn underlying effort into points after difficult first halves of the season.
- Date: 06/01/2025
- Kick-off: 8:00pm
- Location: London Stadium, East London
West Ham currently sit 19th on 14 points (3 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats) and Forest 17th on 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses) after 19 games. West Ham’s goal difference stands at -17, with 18 scored and 35 conceded, while Forest’s is -12 with 18 scored and 30 conceded.
Forest have been slightly more productive recently. Across their last five league matches they have averaged around 1.4 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded, with over 2.5 goals landing in three of those five and BTTS in three as well. West Ham’s last five league outings show a weaker return: roughly 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average, with over 2.5 goals in three of five but BTTS only twice, reflecting a side that often falls behind and struggles to respond.
Forest’s Premier League 2025-26 campaign so far shows an average of 1.00 goal scored and 1.67 conceded per match (2.67 total), with over 2.5 goals in 53–54% of games and BTTS in 57%. West Ham, by contrast, average 0.95 scored and 1.84 conceded (2.79 total), with over 2.5 goals in around 55% of matches and BTTS in roughly 45%, slightly lower because of several games where they fail to score.
West Ham’s home record this season is poor, with just 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats at the London Stadium, scoring 10 and conceding 17 (1.00 for and 1.70 against per home game). Those home fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals in around half of matches and BTTS in a similar band, but with a notable proportion of games where the visitors score first and West Ham struggle to recover.
Forest’s away form is not strong but marginally more encouraging. They have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats on the road, with 9 goals scored and 18 conceded (1.00 for and 2.00 against per away match). Away fixtures see over 2.5 goals in roughly 55% of games and BTTS in just under half, with Forest failing to score in around a third of their away league outings. Their tendency is to keep games competitive for spells but concede in clusters when pressure builds.
Numbers show both teams sitting a little above league average for over 2.5 goals. Forest’s matches have gone over 2.5 in 53-54% and featured BTTS in 57%, while West Ham’s have seen over 2.5 in around 55% and BTTS in the mid‑40s. Both sides’ games see over 1.5 total goals in a clear majority of fixtures, driven largely by defensive frailties.
Stylistically, West Ham rely heavily on Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta for creativity and end product, with Bowen contributing 6 league goals and Paqueta 4 by this stage. Forest don't possess many standout indiviual threats, with Morgan Gibbs‑White (4) among the leading scorers and Callum Hudson‑Odoi (3) providing a threat from wide areas. Neither side ranks high for possession; instead, both look to transitional moments and set pieces, which can lend themselves to uneven spells of pressure and the kind of errors that feed into over 2.5 patterns.
Given West Ham's poor home form and the fact they're coming off the back of an extremely morale-crushing defeat to Wolves, we think the visitors will nick this one.
West Ham 1-2 Nottingham Forest
