Premier League Relegation Battle: Who Will Go Down?

This thrilling Premier League season is shaping up to be one where seemingly everything is going to be decided on the final day, with the title winners, top four and, other European places, and the relegation battle all going right down to the wire.

Sunday the 28th of May should give us all the answers to these questions, but for now, with the season edging ever closer to a conclusion, we can only predict what could happen. And the results of the current relegation battle will be especially tough to predict because in what has been one of the tightest relegation battles in recent memory, there has been nine different teams in real danger of dropping out of the top flight at one point!

Crystal Palace, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Bournemouth, West Ham, Wolves, Leicester and Nottingham Forest have all looked in real danger of being one of the three clubs to suffer the ignominious fate of dropping down to the second tier.

Indicating the tightness of the current battle, just 11 points currently separates bottom-side Southampton from 13th-place Wolves. For all of these teams bar one in West Ham, there are just seven games left to save their respective seasons. And to further add to the drama, there are 16 matches still to take place over the coming weeks where two of these nine clubs will go head-to-head with each other. It is going to be enthralling, nail-biting viewing, and here, we take a look at the run-in of each team and what it could mean for their top-flight status…

So as already mentioned, there are nine teams in the relegation scrap, and this is how those teams look in the Premier League table…

12th: Crystal Palace – 36 points

13th: Wolves – 34 points

14th: Bournemouth – 33 points

15th: West Ham – 31 points

16th: Leeds – 29 points

17th: Everton – 27 points

18th: Nottingham Forest – 27 points

19th: Leicester – 25 points

20th: Southampton – 23 points

As it stands, Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Everton are widely regarded to be the most likely team to go down. This is according to FiveThirtyEight, a site that predicts how a league table could look at the end of a season using their SPI (Soccer Power Index) ratings system to estimate a club’s overall strength. At the time of writing, they have attached a 91% chance of being relegated to Southampton, with 81% and 56% percentages assigned to Nottingham Forest and Everton respectively. However, it is incredibly tight at the bottom, and we could potentially see different teams ultimately being relegated.

The battle to beat the drop looks like it will be fought between the six sides currently sat in 19th place going up to 14th place, with two of Leeds, Everton, Leicester, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and West Ham looking the most likely to suffer the heartbreak of relegation based on their form and the difficulty of their upcoming fixtures.

At the moment, the only team that anyone can really say with any certainty at all to be going down is Southampton. Barring a late miracle, the Saints look set to be playing Championship football next season for what would be the first time since 2012. Having only won six games all season (a record shared by only Nottingham Forest and Everton) and tasting defeat 20 times, it has been a horrid season for Saints fans as their team has sat rock-bottom for 15 of the last 16 gameweeks, with the prospect of relegation seeming to have been quietly accepted by all at the club.

Just above the Saints are Leicester and Nottingham Forest, who despite both seemingly looking safe in midtable just a few weeks ago, have now dropped back into the relegation zone after respective bouts of poor form. Everton flirted dangerously with the prospect of relegation last season and have done so again, and if they want to keep their proud record of being one of just six teams to have never been relegated from the Premier League, then they will have to pick up some wins over the coming few weeks to keep that record.

The team above Everton also flirted with relegation last season, with Leeds only managing to secure their survival on the final day. Constantly flitting between the relegation zone and midtable this season, it is likely that their fate will once again be found out on the final day. Above them are West Ham, who after the highs of a European semi-final and a top-8 finish during 2021/22, now look set for a bottom-8 finish in a campaign that they have struggled for a large majority of.

Ahead of the Hammers are Bournemouth, who are not the same club that played attacking, high-energy football that captured the admiration of many back during their first stint in the top-flight following their promotion from the Championship last season. Initially struggling under Scott Parker, the Cherries have seen an uptick in form under the tutelage of Gary O’Neil which means that despite some tricky fixtures still to navigate, it is still possible that they will be in this league next season.

Above Bournemouth are both Wolves and Crystal Palace, who have been solid midtable sides for many years now. Although at many points during this season they have looked like they were in real danger of joining the rest of the aforementioned teams in the relegation zone due to poor form, both of these sides have picked up some important results in recent weeks that have propelled them towards the upper places of the league’s bottom half, and they look the most secure of these nine teams.

Mathematically, neither Wolves or Palace are still not completely safe, with the slight possibility that they could again be dragged into the relegation battle if results were to go against them, but considering their recent performances and matches still to play, this is unlikely. Now with that short summary of the fortunes of each side so far this season out of the way, here is the state of play going into the business end of what has been yet another remarkable Premier League season…

Crystal Palace being in a secure spot such as 12th place going into the final few weeks of a season would normally not be a cause for concern at all, but as it stands, it is still possible for them to be dragged back into a relegation battle, although that does seem unlikely now. Their form ever since sacking Patrick Vieira and hiring Roy Hodgson has been impressive, with Hodgson leading his side to three successive wins against Leicester, Leeds and Southampton.

Those three wins have shot Palace up the table and into 12th place, and aside from being a crucial points booster, has also provided the Palace squad with an injection of confidence. It does look like they have pulled away from the rest of the relegation pack, and the momentum gained from those three wins will help them going into their next three fixtures, which are also against relegation-threatened sides in Everton, Wolves and West Ham.

If Palace can carry on their form and were to pick up further wins in those fixtures, then their safety is practically guaranteed. However, were they to suffer a sudden and dramatic shift in form, then that threat of relegation would be back. But based on their form since Hodgson took charge and their fairly favourable upcoming fixtures, it looks like Palace are safe. The Eagles are priced at 175/1 odds to be relegated.

Remaining fixtures: Everton (h), Wolves (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Nottingham Forest (h)

13th-place Wolves will be looking at their current position with much contentment, considering the fact that they were bottom in November. Many at Molineux will now look back at the decision to appoint Julen Lopetegui before the World Cup break as a very smart one, with the Spaniard leading Wolves to wins over Liverpool, Chelsea, Brentford and Tottenham since the New Year.

With three of Wolves’ seven remaining fixtures coming against relegation-threatened sides (Leicester and Everton) and Crystal Palace, picking up at least two wins from those three matches might be enough to secure Wolves’ safety and provide a buffer between themselves and the sides closely fighting it out below them.

Now Wolves are currently on 34 points, and were they to pick up those two wins, that would get them to the much-heralded 40-point mark and would surely be a guarantee of safety. Like Palace, they do still have a few tricky fixtures still to play, it seems safe to say that Wolves will be in the Premier League next season. The West Midlands side are priced at 25/1 to go down.

Remaining fixtures: Leicester (a), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Aston Villa (h), Man Utd (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)

It has been somewhat of a yo-yo season for the Cherries, with many lows and highs. The nadir of the season was that 9-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield just four matches into the campaign, but they dusted themselves off and managed to pick up wins against Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Everton soon after – results which could be crucial come the end of May.

Like Lopetegui’s appointment at Wolves, the brave decision to make Gary O’Neil permanent manager during the World Cup break was a gamble that seems to have paid off, with the Englishman galvanising a confidence-void squad to seemingly achieve what many thought that Bournemouth wouldn’t do this season – survive.

Despite a rocky start to his tenure, including a period of form where they picked up just one win and lost eight times in nine games, the Cherries have picked up five vital wins from their nine most recent games, which is more than they managed to get in the 20 games prior.

Their last match saw them triumph 3-2 over Tottenham, with new signing Dango Ouattara curling in a stoppage-time winner. But the Cherries are still in danger of going down, and so will need to pick up some more wins and maybe a few draws to keep themselves safe. But their fixtures are somewhat favourable - four of their last seven games come against sides around them, with Southampton and Leeds to play over the next few weeks and a trip to Everton on the final day to come, and these are the games where they need to pick up points.

Those further games against West Ham, Crystal Palace, Man Utd and Chelsea are an opportunity to nick some extra potentially life-saving points. The Cherries are priced at 12/1 odds to go down.

Remaining fixtures: West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)

West Ham’s sharp decline this season has been surprising to see and difficult to understand, considering the fact that they made it all the way to the semi-finals of last year’s Europa League and finished within the Premier League’s top eight, earning themselves qualification for this year’s Europa Conference League in doing so.

But, the Hammers have actually spent the majority of this season in the bottom half of the table, as they have struggled with form. There does seem to have been somewhat of a resurgence over recent weeks however, picking up wins against both Southampton and Fulham, and drawing with in-form Aston Villa and league leaders Arsenal just last weekend.

The Hammers do have a tough run-in, however, with half of their remaining fixtures coming against top-half sides. Things could turn bad very quickly if they fail to pick up points from those fixtures, and so they will be hoping to pick up maximum points from the ‘easier’ fixtures they have still to play – against Leeds, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Leicester.

The two matches against Leeds and Leicester are their final two of the season, and those could even turn out to be potential win-or-go-down ties based on their results prior. West Ham are priced at 12/1 to be relegated.

Remaining fixtures: Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man City (a), Man Utd (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)

Leeds seem to have somewhat fallen apart in recent months, and that collapse has come at the worst time of the season.

The Whites have conceded 16 goals in only their last four games, shipping five goals at home to Crystal Palace before suffering a 6-1 hammering by Liverpool on Monday. Conceding 11 goals in just two matches during a relegation fight is very dangerous, but what is arguably more concerning is the fact that Leeds have picked up just four league wins since the beginning of November.

Javi Gracia will need to patch up that form quickly if Leeds are to survive, but that will be tough considering the fact that they have some tricky fixtures still to play. Three of their final four games come against sides in the top five, including title-chasing Man City and clashes with top-4-chasing Newcastle and Tottenham.

The Whites will find it hard to get any points from those three games, so their best hope of picking up any points at all will come in their three games against relegation rivals Leicester, Bournemouth and West Ham.

Whether or not they will survive is tough to tell – they were actually given a 27% chance of being relegated by FiveThirtyEight at the beginning of the campaign, but that figure has dwindled slightly to 24% now. The Yorkshire outfit are priced at 23/10 odds to drop down to the Championship.

Remaining fixtures: Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h)

Sean Dyche replaced Frank Lampard in the Goodison Park hot seat in February looking to instil some vigour and stability into an Everton side completely devoid of both. And he did get off to a great start, stunning league leaders Arsenal with a much-needed 1-0 win on his debut.

Dyche has steadied the ship somewhat, with Everton picking up a further two wins and three draws after that scalp of Arsenal. However, that is not enough currently, and the Toffees are still under serious threat of losing their status as one of the only clubs to have never been relegated from the Premier League as they teeter dangerously on the edge of the relegation zone.

They need to pick up at least three wins from their remaining fixtures, but it is difficult to see exactly where they can get those wins from. Apart from Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, who they play next Thursday and on the final day respectively, Dyche’s men face some otherwise very tough matches where they look likely to pick up little to no points.

But having said that, Everton did fail to beat the Cherries in the reverse fixtures earlier on in the season, so even those points against Bournemouth will be tough to come by. Further adding to the bleak situation is the fact that Dyche has not won on the road yet as Everton boss – his side still has 4 away games to play.

So the question is, where are the points going to come from? It is difficult to see Everton getting three wins from their seven fixtures. And that makes the prospect of relegation that much more real. For a club that has proudly not tasted relegation since 1951, that would be catastrophic.

As mentioned earlier on, FiveThirtyEight have given Everton a 56% chance of going down now, in what is a huge contrast to the 23% probability that they were handed before the start of the season. The Toffees are currently priced at 1/1 odds to drop down into the Championship.

Remaining fixtures: Crystal Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), Man City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)

23 seasons after their last appearance in English football’s top division, Nottingham Forest went all-out in an attempt to secure their place within the division for more than a solitary season by spending over 150m on a record 21 players in the summer, alongside further additions that were made in January. But ultimately, it seems like this high-risk strategy has not worked out for the club, with Forest picking up just one win from their opening 10 games of the season.

However, as the players slowly began to find their feet in the league, their performances improved as they lifted themselves from the relegation zone and into midtable, claiming scalps against both Liverpool and Manchester City along the way. But, the poor form that plagued them at the beginning of the campaign has returned now - Forest have now failed to win in their last 10 matches, suffering seven defeats in that run. This form has seen them plunge right back into the danger zone, and considering the fixtures that they still have to play, they are arguably one of the sides most likely to go down.

FiveThirtyEight also felt so, giving Forest an 81% chance of going down now. Their next three matches come against Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford, with their match after that trio of difficult fixtures against bottom-side Southampton their only real respite from what will be a tough end to the season for Steve Cooper’s men.

Forest are also still to play league leaders Arsenal, before finishing off the season against Crystal Palace. They have exactly the same dilemma as Everton – where are the points that they need going to come from considering who they still have to play? Forest are priced at 2/9 odds to lose their top-flight status.

Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a)

Like Bournemouth who are above them, it has been a rollercoaster campaign for Leicester this year. The Foxes spent 10 of the first 15 gameweeks of the season in the relegation zone, picking up just five wins in that time. But they managed to escape the bottom three after the resumption of the league in December, with a slight uptick in performances and results elsewhere going in their favour helping to propel the Foxes up to 13th place.

That was despite their continuing poor form at the time (suffering eight losses in 12 matches at one point), which meant that they continued to hover around midtable. But, with still no improvement to their form after all that time, and the other teams around them picking up results of their own, it has meant that the Foxes have now once again slipped back into the relegation zone.

Leicester have suffered four losses on the bounce so far this month, and that marks their next four games as season-defining. Games against fellow relegation rivals in Wolves, Leeds and Everton, and against an inconsistent Fulham, are to come over the next few weeks, and those matches could make or break Leicester’s survival hopes. That is because they still have to play Liverpool and Newcastle, and based on their performances this season, it is hard to see them leaving those matches with anything but disappointment.

Therefore, those matches with the sides around them are immensely important as they are Leicester’s best opportunity of picking up what would be crucial points. Big performances are required from James Maddison and Co. But were Leicester to fail in securing points from those matches, then it is fair to say that like Southampton, we likely have our second near-certain relegation pick in the Foxes. And for a club that won the Premier League seven years ago and tasted FA Cup success only two years ago, that would painfully cap off what has been a spectacular fall from grace for what had been one of the top-flight’s most respected clubs. The Foxes are priced at 10/11 odds to be relegated.

Remaining fixtures: Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), West Ham (h)

The Saints are winless in their last six matches, picking up just two points in that run. They have been rooted to the foot of the table since Boxing Day, with an astonishing 20 defeats to their name and just six wins all season, the joint-worst record in the league.

Many Southampton fans may have accepted their fate a while ago, and while things are very bleak at St Mary’s, it is mathematically still possible for them to stay up. But it has to be said that it is very unlikely that they will do so. Their squad is simply devoid of both confidence and quality, and that is a toxic combination that does not bode well for their top-flight status.

On the issue of quality, it is puzzling why Ruben Selles has opted not to play January arrival Mislav Orsic, who has previously shown his quality on both the European and international stage. The Croatian has been given just six minutes of league action, and given what Premier League fans have seen of him already, it surely wouldn’t hurt to throw him in for the final few games of the season – anything could happen. But also further adding to Southampton’s woes is the fact that they do not have the easiest fixture list, with games against Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool to come.

Seemingly the Saints' only realistic chance of picking up any points at all will likely be in their matches with Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest. But even if they were to actually pick up wins in both of those games, it is still extremely unlikely that it will be enough to rescue themselves. The season is ultimately just too far gone, and Southampton do not possess the quality to keep themselves safe. Theoretically, they are already down and out, with just pride to play for at this point. They have been given odds of 1/25 to be relegated.

Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)

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