Hull City’s FA Cup fourth‑round tie against Chelsea on Friday night has all the makings of a classic British cup tie.
Hull come into the tie having won 16, drawn 6 and lost 9 of their 31 Championship games this season, sitting firmly in the play‑off picture with 54 points and a goal difference of +9. Their overall league record shows 52 goals scored and 43 conceded (around 1.68 for and 1.39 against per game), underlining the fact that they are not a grind‑it‑out defensive outfit but a side whose matches regularly carry two or three goals. At the MKM, their home form is fairly unremarkable: 8 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, with more consistency away than on Humberside, but still enough home wins and goals to pose a threat to visiting Premier League opposition.
Recent form shows that Hull have won four of their last six matches in all competitions, with three of those wins coming away from home, and that their most recent outing, a 3-2 defeat to Bristol City, again featured both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. That loss snapped a good run but reinforced the trend, with Hull both score and concede at a healthy rate, and their forwards, led by Oli McBurnie (13 goals in all competitions this season), have shown they can hurt Championship defences regularly.
Chelsea arrive from a very different tier and with a very different statistical profile. In the Premier League, they are among the most high‑event sides, as league‑wide over‑2.5 data places them in the top three for over‑2.5 frequency, with 65% of their matches this season producing three or more goals. BTTS numbers tell a similar story, with Chelsea at 62% BTTS across their opening 21 league matches, one of the highest rates in the division.
Form coming into this cup tie keeps that theme, with Chelsea drawing 2-2 with Leeds United in their last Premier League outing, and also having scored at least three goals in four of their last six matches in all competitions. Across their last eight games, Liam Rosenior's side have lost only once, winning six times.
All the signs do, then, point towards a win for the Premier League side. While the neutral will no doubt want to tune in for the threat of a shock, this game should at least contain its fair share of goals given both teams' recent history.
Hull City 1-3 Chelsea
Championship 
Premier League 
