Newcastle are hoping to surge towards the Champions League places this week as they take on Leeds United in the Premier League.
- Date: 07/01/2025
- Kick-off: 8:15pm
- Location: St James' Park, Newcastle
Newcastle currently sit 9th on 29 points (8 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats), while Leeds are 16th on 22 points (5 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats) after 20 games. Newcastle’s goal difference is +4, with 28 scored and 24 conceded, while Leeds sit on -7 from 26 scored and 33 against.
Across the season, Newcastle average about 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per league game (2.6 total), with over 2.5 goals landing in 63% of their matches and BTTS also in 63%. Leeds’ Premier League campaign shows them averaging roughly 1.3 goals for and 1.65 against (2.95 total), and their broader season stats indicate over 2.5 goals in around 56-60% of games and BTTS in roughly two‑thirds.
Newcastle come into this having started 2026 with a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace, following a patchy December. Over their last five league matches they have taken 7 points, with two wins, one draw and two defeats; three of those five have gone over 2.5 goals and three have seen BTTS. Leeds’ last five league games have produced 1 win and four draws, with over 2.5 goals occurring in one and BTTS in three, including a 1-1 draw with Manchester United and a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace.
Newcastle’s home form is strong. At St James’ Park this season they average 1.54 xG for and 1.27 xG against, reflecting a side that usually creates slightly more and concedes slightly less than in their away fixtures. This season, 63% of matches have gone over 2.5 goals and 63% BTTS, with those figures generally higher at home, where they tend to be more assertive and open. Back-to-back wins over Burnley and Palace have steadied things after a run of inconsistent results.
Leeds’ away numbers are more fragile. Their xG profile shows 1.20 xG for and 1.49 xG against away from Elland Road, suggesting they create less and concede more on their travels. In all competitions this season, over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leeds’ matches, with BTTS at around 65%, though those BTTS and over-2.5 rates tend to be slightly stronger at home than away. On the road they have been competitive but leaky, with several fixtures decided by fine margins rather than heavy defeats.
While we expect the Peacocks to be competitive, the Magpies are a different animal on home turf and with the St. James' crowd behind them, we think Newcastle will come out on top and make it three wins on the trot.
Newcastle 2-1 Leeds
