Serie A: Can AC Milan win Their First Title in 11 Years?

Football can sometimes be a cruel sport, just ask any Milan fan. It’s been a long 11 years for the Rossoneri, with the 2010/11 title win their 18th and last title.

Since then, the Scudetto has not only been out of reach for the San Siro club but a distant memory that many could only dream about. 2022 could see the resurrection of the Rossoneri however, so let's evaluate if they can get over the line.

The title race in Italy is arguably the most exciting in Europe. After years of Juventus domination, the Old Lady now looks very feeble and looks to be in a fight just to qualify for the Champions League. This leaves a three-horse race between Milan, Napoli and Italy.

Milan currently sits top of the Serie A table with 67 points after 31 games. Napoli is one point further back on 66 whilst city rivals Inter have 63 points on the board. Inter however do have a game in hand and will not want to give up the Scudetto without a fight.

The form table is on Milan’s side. Stefano Pioli, a man who was just supposed to be a temporary solution when he joined in October of 2019, has guided his side to 18 points from their last eight games. This is the best of any side in Italy’s top flight and one and eight points better than Napoli and Inter respectively.

The run-ins does suggest that if Milan are to win the title, they will have to do it the hard way. With the average position of the teams they still have to play being 10th, the Rossoneri know that games against the likes of Lazio and Atalanta will not be easy. This is in comparison to Napoli and Inter who play teams with an average position of 11.7 and 12.6 respectively.

Experience will be something that could give Inter an upper hand in the race for the Scudetto. With Milan and Napoli having not won the title for 11 and 32 years respectively, Inter’s triumph last year shows that their crop of players has what it takes.

Simone Inzaghi was not the manager for this success, with the former Lazio manager replacing Antonio Conte in the summer. The loss of key players such as Romelu Lukaku, Achraf Hakimi and Christian Eriksen has made the Inter team, not the force it was this time last season.

Milan may have been worried at the start of the season with the calibre of players they lost. The saga surrounding Gianluigi Donnarumma’s future was finally resolved, with Italy’s starting goalkeeper swapping Milan for Paris. Key central midfielder Hakan Calhanogulu did the unthinkable as he swapped Milan for Inter.

Pioli was smart in the transfer market and made sure his Milan side could put up a title challenge. The signing of England centre-back Fikayo Tomori from Chelsea, after being on loan at San Siro last season as well as Ligue 1 title winner Mike Maignan from Lille has been inspired.

Conceding just 29 games in 31 league games so far this season, Milan has managed to concede 20% fewer goals than at this time last season. Four more clean sheets have also been kept in comparison to this time last season, 13 instead of nine.

Pioli’s most key signing in the transfer market was arguably that of Olivier Giroud. Arriving for £900,000 from European champions Chelsea, the 34-year-old has shown that quality can triumph regardless of age.

His eight league goals this season have included the vital winners against Scudetto rivals Napoli and Inter. He’s been part of a Milan team that shares the goals and has the third-best attack in Serie A.

Napoli and Inter will look at xG as a reason that they may be able to overhaul Milan at the top of the table. Inter and Napoli both have an expected xG of 2 or over, whilst Milan’s stands at 1.87.

This edge for Napoli and Inter is also reciprocated in the expected xGA. Napoli and Inter stand at 1.22 and 1.26 respectively. Milan’s is just higher at 1.28.

xG is only a stat however and the table never lies and at this time Milan is the team to beat.

The Rossoneri have been through dark times. No Scudetto, no Champions League football for seven years in this time frame as well. With the pinnacle of European football now back at San Siro, the Scudetto will likely make its return in May of this year.