The Most Statistically-Backed Over 2.5 Goals Tips - 11/3/22

The first tip on this list comes from the Dutch Eredivisie where league leaders Ajax travels to eighth-placed Cambuur.

This could be an entertaining match when looking at both sides' recent results, as prior to the hosts' recent 1-0 defeat to FC Twente, over 2.5 goals had been scored in their last four games, following a 2-1 win against Fortuna Sittard, as well as 3-1, 4-3 and 3-2 losses against Feyenoord, PEC Zwolle and Utrecht.

Ajax have also seen the over 2.5 goals market land in all but one of their last five fixtures, having defeated RKC Waalwijk 3-2 in their last league game after a shock 2-1 defeat wat at Go Ahead Eagles. The Amsterdam club also drew 2-2 with Benfica in the Champions League and beat Willem II 1-0 after thumping FC Twente 5-0.

When these two sides last met back in September, Erik ten Hag’s men recorded a staggering 9-0 victory at the Johan Cruijff Arena, as eight different players got on the scoresheet, with David Neres scoring a brace, whilst Jurrien Timber, Steven Berghuis, Noussair Mazraoui, Dusan Tadic, Mohamed Daramy, Sebastien Haller and Danilo all added to the scoreline.

On Friday night in the Belgian Pro League, league leaders Union Saint-Gilloise face a potentially awkward test away at 12th placed OH Leuven.

Leuven will be hoping to repeat the shock 3-1 victory that they managed against Union back in late November when Casper De Norre, Mathieu Maertens and Xavier Mercier all scored.

Over 2.5 goals have been scored in three of Leuven’s last five matches, having beaten Genk 2-1 and Cercle Brugge 3-2 before losing 2-0 away at Sint-Truiden, drawing 0-0 against Anderlecht and being defeated 3-1 against AS Eupen.

Two of Saint-Gilloise’s last three games have had over 2.5 goals in them, having scraped a 3-2 victory away at Kortrijk off the back of a 0-0 draw at home to Eupen and a thumping 3-0 win against Sporting Charleroi.

Next up on this list sees Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel face off in a battle of 15th against 11th in Bundesliga 2.

Rostock’s come into this match having managed a confidence-boosting victory against Schalke by a 4-3 scoreline, after losing 2-0 and 2-1 to Nurnberg and Werder Bremen on either side of a 1-1 draw at Darmstadt. Their other match in this sequence was a thumping 4-1 victory against Dynamo Dresden.

Two of Holstein’s last four league fixtures have seen the over 2.5 goals market land, following a 4-3 loss to Paderborn, as well as a 3-2 away win at Erzgebirge Aue.

The next match also comes from Germany’s second-tier, as second-place Darmstadt hosts 14th in the table Sandhausen at Stadion am Bollenfalltor.

Despite their league positioning, Darmstadt’s form doesn’t look like a side that is sitting high up in the standings, as prior to their recent 3-2 and 1-0 wins over Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden, they had drawn 1-1 and 2-2 with Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96, off the back of a shock 5-0 loss at home to Hamburg.

The only match with over 2.5 goals in it from Sandhausen’s last five matches was their most recent fixture when they managed a 3-1 victory against Hannover 96.

Sandhausen will be keen to avoid a repeat of the last meeting between these two, as Darmstadt ran riot in a 6-1 win back in late October.

In the Portuguese Primeira Liga, third-place Benfica are looking to close the 10 points gap between themselves and FC Porto when they go head to head with 14th in the table Vizela at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.

All five of Benfica’s most recent matches have yielded over 2.5 goals, having beaten both Portimonense and Santa Clara by 2-1 scorelines on either side of a 3-0 win at home to Vitoria Guimaraes and 2-2 draws against Ajax and Boavista.

Three of Vizela’s last five games have had more than 2.5 goals in them, following 3-1 and 2-1 defeats to Santa Clara and Pacos de Ferreira, as well as managing a 2-2 draw with Boavista.