The Race for the Premier League Golden Boot Odds

Of all the things that the 2019/20 Premier League season will be remembered for, a riveting title-race will not be one of them. Following an almost flawless campaign, Liverpool could well secure the title before Britain has put her clocks back. However, one race that is far from over is the battle to be the named the Premier League’s top scorer.

Now with just 11 matches remaining, there are four familiar names in the running to be awarded the 2019/20 Golden Boot, whilst we have some outsiders still in with a shout, such as Danny Ings. At the same time, forwards like Marcus Rashford with 14 goals could well have snatched the award, had it not been for his injury interrupting his stellar goalscoring form.

Here, we take a look at the odds for the Premier League Golden Boot and analyse who could take the famous trophy home.

As he has started most seasons for almost a decade, Sergio Aguero is the 5/2 favourite with Sky Bet to finish as the league’s top scorer. As things stand, the Manchester City striker is one goal behind Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy with 16; yet his minutes per goal ratio (83) is comfortably the best in the league. Plus, after City host Liverpool on the April 5, their run-in is kind, however, these two facts do offer a different story.

Firstly, Aguero has one of the best minutes per goal ratios in English football history, yet he has only won the Golden Boot once, in 2014/15. The simple explanation for this is the Argentine’s susceptibility to injury - will that stand in his way again this season?

Secondly, Manchester City’s game against Liverpool in April could be the last time they play a team currently in the top half of the league, but it also lands up to three days before a potential Champions League quarter-final first leg, should they make it past Real Madrid.

Plus, with their league title hopes long-extinguished, there is a strong chance Pep Guardiola could opt to rest the 31-year-old, should City continue to advance in Europe

Where would Arsenal be without Aubameyang? The Gabon international has carried his teammates at times this season and his 17 strikes account for almost half of the Gunners’ entire league tally of 39 (44%).

The 30-year-old is no stranger to a Golden Boot race, having shared the trophy with Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah with 22 goals each last season. Now, with Aubameyang continuing his incredible form, Sky Bet price him at 3/1 to finish as the Premier League top scorer for a second season running.

Similar to Aguero, there is the chance that if Arsenal find themselves continuing to progress in the Europa League, Aubameyang could find himself rested in the league, as this route seems their most likely one to Champions League football.

However, the former Borussia Dortmund man does not carry the City striker’s chequered injury record and the evidence suggests that when available, he plays. Of all the players in this list, Arsenal’s number 14 has played the most minutes (2,215) in the Premier League this season, which may or may not work in his favour.

Jamie Vardy may not have scored in the league since December 21, yet he remains the league’s joint-top scorer alongside Aubameyang with 17 goals. His upcoming fixtures offer him a good opportunity to rediscover some form as well, as Leicester City are not scheduled to play any current top half team until they face Aubameyang Arsenal in April.

Unlike Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, Vardy’s manager, Brendan Rodgers, does not have to consider balancing league performances with European demands. Other than the FA Cup, the Foxes are able to focus entirely on securing Champions League qualification and are no doubt hoping that their number nine can replicate the form that saw him score 11 times over 8 consecutive league games as autumn became winter. Jamie Vardy is currently priced at 7/2 with Sky Bet to finish as the Premier League top scorer 2019/20.

Both Mane and Salah scored in a surprisingly testing 3-2 win over West Ham United at Anfield on Monday. The dynamic Liverpool duo continue to shine as part of Liverpool’s gilded front-three but are both behind the three aforementioned players in this race right now.

However, it is important to add that the Egyptian's 15 goals so far mean he has bagged more goals than anybody since he returned to the Premier League in 2017. Now, Sky Bet price him at 4/1 to secure his third consecutive Golden Boot.

Interestingly, these odds are much shorter than those of his teammate Mane. The Senegalese forward is currently at 16/1 with Sky Bet, likely on account of his inferior 13 goals so far this season.

At first glance, it would be easy to assume that playing in a team that has won 35 of their last 36 league games - scoring 89 goals - would provide the Anfield pair with the best possible chance of finishing as the league’s highest scorer.

Yet, in the same way that Manchester City’s title defence has been so bad that the Champions League is now the main focus, Liverpool’s assault on the Premier League title has been so good, that they could afford to play a reserve team in the league around and not suffer any real consequences.

Alternatively, if Liverpool look to break the countless records that are within their grasp, the current odds for their acclaimed wingers - Mane’s particularly - could start to look quite promising.

By Michael Murphy