Wolves travel to St James’ Park on Sunday to face sixth-place Newcastle United.
The hosts had an unbelievable start to the season, yet in recent weeks their form has taken a U-turn, making Newcastle the least in-form team in the Premier League over the last five games. Wolves have started to enjoy life under Julen Lopetegui and they are finally starting to get results, winning three of their last six games. The last time the two teams met, the game ended in a 1-1 draw, a result which has occurred in six of their last eight meetings.
Newcastle United
Newcastle’s biggest strength this season has been their ability to keep clean sheets and dominate games, especially when at home. Nick Pope and his teammates have the joint lowest goals conceded average in the league at home, and the England goalkeeper currently leads the race for the most clean sheets. They have only lost one game at home all season, which was their most recent outing at St James’ Park. Liverpool were already 2-0 up prior to Newcastle’s first-choice shot stopper’s red card in the 22nd minute for a blatant handball, yet despite providing a threat for the remainder of the game they were unable to score.
The home side does have a respectable goal-scoring average at home, which is 1.6 goals per match. However, goal-scoring has been Newcastle’s biggest weakness, with December being the last time they scored more than once in a game. Last time out, Eddie Howe’s side were beaten 2-0 against Manchester City last Saturday, the third consecutive 2-0 defeat for the Magpies. The brightest spark for Newcastle at the Etihad was Alexander Isak’s 30-minute cameo. The Swedish forward is extremely dynamic and offers more of a threat than Callum Wilson, which is why Isak could be vital in Newcastle’s charge for European football.
Wolves
Wolves are in a very similar situation to Newcastle, in regard to their lack of goals yet defensively they are difficult to break down. On the road this season, Wolves conceding average is almost double their goal-scoring average. Their last away game was a 2-0 defeat at Anfield, yet they only conceded two quick-fire goals in the 73rd and 77th minute. The obvious concern for Lopetegui was the lack of chances they created and the fact that they didn’t register a single shot in the second half. This run without registering a shot continued into Wolves’ most recent game against Spurs, extending the streak to 100 minutes without a strike across the two games prior to Jimenez’s attempt in the 55th minute.
However, Wolves did bounce back in the second half, as super sub Adama Traore sealed the 1-0 victory in the 82nd minute. It is fair to say that Lopetegui’s side were dominated in every aspect other than the most important one which is the scoreline, which does overshadow how poor they actually were. Spurs tallied up 21 shots and eight corners yet they were still unable to find the net, which may be similar to how the game will play out on Sunday when Wolves face Newcastle.
Verdict
Newcastle should dominate the ball and all attacking statistics on Sunday, like they have done at home in pretty much every game this season. Wolves have an incredibly technical midfield however they lack that clinical edge in front of goal which has costed them for the majority of the season.
If Isak starts, I believe Newcastle will just about win this tie, however, with both sides struggling to convert their chances we should see a low-scoring game. Newcastle to win and under 2.5 match goals comes in at 5/2.
